Record 2025 Harvest Pushes Prairie Feed Grain Costs Lower — Hay Remains Structurally Elevated

Input Prices | Feed Grain and Forage as Livestock Production Inputs | April 24, 2026

The Structural Condition

The dominant force shaping Prairie feed grain costs through the 2025-26 crop year is the 2025 Canadian harvest — the largest on record for principal field crops. Statistics Canada estimated total 2025 Canadian field crop production at approximately 107 million tonnes, up 10% year-over-year and 16% above the five-year average. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s February 2026 Outlook for Principal Field Crops reports total carry-out stocks for all major field crops are projected to rise 65% year-over-year, with on-farm stocks as of December 31, 2025 running 10.2% above 2024 levels and 15.8% above the five-year average.

This supply surplus is the direct upstream driver of current feed grain price levels. AAFC projects the 2025-26 Lethbridge average feed barley price at $270/tonne, down $26/tonne from 2024-25, attributing the decline to ample local feed supplies, strong international competition from bumper cereal grain output in the EU, Russia, and Australia, and expectations of continued global supply pressure. Global barley production for 2025-26 is estimated by USDA at over 150 million tonnes, up materially year-over-year and above the five-year average, with ending stocks projected to expand substantially in most major exporting countries.

Forage tells a different story. Hay prices remain structurally elevated above long-run averages, despite significant relief from the drought-stressed peaks of 2023-24. Alberta Agriculture’s analysis notes that tame hay acres and production in Alberta have trended downward since the mid-2000s, a structural supply-side constraint that persists regardless of annual weather variation. Dry conditions through fall 2025 — including expanded extreme drought along the Alberta-Saskatchewan border, per Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s National Agroclimate Risk Report — limited late-season pasture regrowth and reduced forage inventory heading into the winter feeding season.

Current Price Levels

The following data is sourced from the Alberta Agriculture and Irrigation Monthly Farm Input Price Survey (May 2025, the most recently published edition as of the date of this post) and the Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Outlook for Principal Field Crops (February 18, 2026). Producers should verify current local bids directly with their input suppliers, as retail prices will have moved from these benchmarks.

Feed Grain — Alberta Farm Gate (May 2025):

Source: Alberta Agriculture and Irrigation, Trade, Economics and Data Analytics Branch, Statistics and Data Development Section. Alberta Average Farm Input Prices.

Forage — Alberta Farm Gate (May 2025):

Source: Alberta Agriculture and Irrigation, Trade, Economics and Data Analytics Branch, Statistics and Data Development Section. Alberta Average Farm Input Prices.

Processed Feed Products — Alberta (May 2025):

Source: Alberta Agriculture and Irrigation, Trade, Economics and Data Analytics Branch, Statistics and Data Development Section. Alberta Average Farm Input Prices.

AAFC Price Projection (2025-26 crop year):

• Feed barley, Lethbridge average: $270/tonne — down $26/tonne from 2024-25.

Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. Canada: Outlook for Principal Field Crops, February 18, 2026.

The pattern across these data points is consistent with the structural condition: the record 2025 harvest has relieved grain and processed feed cost pressure materially compared to the drought years of 2021-23. Hay is the exception — $176/tonne represents a 34% decline from the May 2024 level of $266/tonne, but remains above Alberta Agriculture’s published ten-year average of approximately $155/tonne, reflecting the structural tightening of tame hay acres across the province over the past two decades.

Production Economics Implications

Dairy Operations

Feed cost is the largest operating expense in Prairie dairy production, typically representing 50–60% of total cash costs. The combined signal from current data is modestly positive for dairy feed input costs versus the 2023-24 drought period, with important nuance.

Purchased grain rations — barley, wheat, oats — are all running at or near flat in nominal terms versus a year ago, a material improvement over the sustained year-over-year increases producers absorbed through 2022-24. Dairy supplement costs at $28.79/25 kg are down from $30.80 a year ago, a directional cost reduction for operations purchasing commercial mixed rations. Hay at $176/tonne represents significant relief from the $266/tonne recorded in May 2024, but producers purchasing hay rather than growing their own are still facing values that are structurally elevated relative to the ten-year average.

For operations with strong on-farm forage production, the combination of ample grain supply and moderate hay prices creates favourable conditions for total feed cost management in 2025-26. For operations with high hay purchase exposure — smaller operations, those with drought-affected pasture base — the $176/tonne level still represents a material cost.

Beef Feedlots

Feed barley is the primary grain input for Prairie feedlot rations. The AAFC projection of $270/tonne for 2025-26 Lethbridge barley — down $26/tonne year-over-year — represents direct feed cost relief at the feedlot level. At typical feedlot barley inclusion rates, a $26/tonne decline in barley cost reduces feed cost per head meaningfully across a finishing period, improving margins against current strong cattle prices.

The structural concern for feedlots is the forage side: backgrounding and cow-calf operations feeding into feedlots have absorbed elevated hay costs for multiple seasons. At $176/tonne, hay costs are declining but not yet at historically normal levels, which means the calf supply chain entering feedlots carries embedded cost pressure from earlier production stages.

Pork Production

Hog grower ration is the one counter-trend in this dataset. At $24.88/25 kg in May 2025, hog grower ration is up from $22.86 a year ago — an 8.8% year-over-year increase that runs against the broader pattern of grain cost relief. This divergence warrants monitoring. Hog grower rations incorporate protein ingredients and additives beyond base grain, and the ration cost increase may reflect ingredient-specific supply or processing cost dynamics not captured in raw grain benchmarks alone.

Pre-Buy and Timing Considerations

The structural backdrop — record Canadian grain stocks, AAFC projections of continued carry-out stock accumulation, and strong global cereal supply — suggests limited near-term upside risk on grain-based feed costs entering the 2026 summer feeding season. AAFC projects that for 2026-27, coarse grain acreage is expected to rise 2% year-over-year, which would sustain supply pressure on feed barley and wheat prices absent a significant weather event.

Forage timing is a different calculation. Hay price volatility is driven by annual production conditions, and dry conditions through fall 2025 along the southern Prairie corridor have reduced the inventory buffer entering the 2026 growing season. First-cut hay conditions will be the key variable to monitor through May and June 2026. Operations with hay purchase exposure should assess their position against current prices before first-cut quality and quantity signals emerge — the current $176/tonne level may represent a more favourable entry point than post-growing-season prices if 2026 summer moisture is limited.

Input purchase timing decisions involve individual farm financial and agronomic factors. This analysis identifies market conditions only. Consult your input supplier and financial advisor before making purchase commitments.

Tags: feed barley, feed wheat, hay prices, forage costs, dairy feed costs, hog grower ration, feedlot economics, Prairie livestock inputs, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Alberta Agriculture farm input prices

This post was produced with AI assistance. All sources are attributed and linked. Western Farm Report editorial standards apply.