Active HPAI Premises in Alberta and Saskatchewan Coincide with Peak Spring Migration Risk — A-201 Allocation Steps Down to +4.5%

Quota and Supply Management Conditions

Period A-201 (March 8 – May 2, 2026) is set at +4.5% above adjusted base, representing a national allocation of 226,836,317 kilograms live weight, as confirmed by the Canadian Chicken Marketing Quota Regulations. This is a step down from A-200 (January 11 – March 7, 2026), which was set at +5% above adjusted base at 221,026,875 kg.

The directional signal is modestly tightening into spring. The A-200 approval process, documented in the Farm Products Council of Canada decision letter (November 2025), recorded processor and board discussion of ongoing chick quality and quantity constraints that limited the industry’s ability to fill demand during 2025 even at elevated allocation levels. That constraint has not been formally resolved in A-201 documentation available to date. Prairie producers should monitor whether chick availability continues to cap placement against the authorized volume in A-201.

No MSQ adjustment announcements from Alberta Chicken Producers or other Prairie provincial boards have been issued separately from the national CFC framework for this period. The next allocation period (A-202) will begin May 3, 2026 — monitor CFC and the Canada Gazette for the Farm Products Council approval letter, which will signal whether the allocation direction continues to moderate or recovers toward the elevated levels set in late 2025.

Turkey and egg allocation conditions: No Turkey Farmers of Canada seasonal allocation announcement has been issued for the current spring period beyond standard scheduling. Egg Farmers of Canada pricing formula conditions remain unchanged from the most recent announcement — no new formula adjustment has been issued in the 60-day monitoring window.

Sources: Chicken Farmers of Canada — Allocation Calendar 2026–2027| Canadian Chicken Marketing Quota Regulations — SOR/2002-36| Farm Products Council of Canada — A-200 Decision Letter

Production Economics

Feed costs

Prairie feed wheat is currently trading in the $6.00–$6.50/bu on-farm range depending on location and class, with the strongest bids closest to feedlot alley in southern Alberta. Feed barley bids are running in the mid-$4 to low-$5/bu FOB farm range across Saskatchewan and Alberta. No feed cost spike is evident as of late April 2026.

These are manageable conditions relative to recent years. Feed wheat at $6.00–$6.50/bu translates to approximately $220–$240/tonne delivered — well below the stress levels seen during 2022–2023. For Prairie broiler operations running wheat-dominant rations, current feed cost conditions provide margin stability within the supply-managed price structure.

Canola meal, the primary protein supplement in western Canadian poultry rations, is tracking alongside softer canola futures — canola broke below $600/MT in mid-April 2026. Lower canola meal cost is a secondary positive input signal for laying hen and broiler rations.

Feed Grain Weekly — Prairie Conditions, April 2026 | Input Prices

Energy costs

The Alberta Energy Regulator’s base case forecast places AECO-C natural gas at approximately $3.82/GJ for 2026, a meaningful recovery from the $1.45/GJ average recorded in 2024. For barn operators on regulated or variable-rate natural gas plans, this represents a materially higher heating cost baseline than the two preceding years. However, the seasonal transition is working in producers’ favour: broiler and turkey barns are moving from full heating load (October–April) into the ventilation season (May–August), reducing natural gas consumption per flock cycle.

The federal carbon levy on natural gas was eliminated effective April 1, 2025. As a result, barn heating bills in the winter of 2025–26 did not carry the carbon surcharge that applied in prior years. This provides a partial offset to the recovery in underlying gas prices.

For laying hen facilities requiring year-round climate control, the full $3.82/GJ base cost applies regardless of season. Operators on fixed-rate electricity plans through Alberta’s Rate of Last Resort (RoLR) framework are locked at 12.02 cents/kWh through December 31, 2026 — a known, stable input for budgeting purposes.

Alberta Energy Price Monitor — April 2026 | Input Prices

Sources: Alberta Energy Regulator — AECO-C Price Forecast, ST98 | Direct Energy — Alberta Energy Market Update 2026

Trade and Import Access

The CUSMA joint review is scheduled to commence July 1, 2026. This is the mandatory five-year review of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement and represents the single most consequential near-term policy event for Canadian supply-managed poultry.

On March 31, 2026, the Office of the United States Trade Representative released its 2026 National Trade Estimate report to Congress and the President. The report identified Canada’s administration of supply management TRQs — including poultry and dairy — as an ongoing trade irritant and a potential pressure point in the July review. This is a standing US position that predates CUSMA, but its explicit re-statement in the 2026 NTE, in the weeks leading into the review period, signals that TRQ administration will be a live negotiating item.

The current WTO global TRQ for chicken and chicken products is set at 39,900,000 kg or 7.5% of the previous year’s domestic production, whichever is greater. The CUSMA-specific chicken TRQ runs on a January–December allocation year administered by Global Affairs Canada. No early fill or abnormal utilization signal has been detected in publicly available data for the current TRQ year. Current intra-year utilization data is available through the Global Affairs Canada supply-managed TRQ page and should be monitored monthly through the review period.

Producers and quota holders should note that US wholesale chicken prices have softened materially relative to 2025 — cold storage inventories are elevated, particularly for breast meat and wings. Softer US wholesale values increase the competitive attraction of import access within Canadian TRQ volumes, even without any policy change. This is a market condition to monitor alongside the policy review.

CUSMA Joint Review — Supply Management Exposure Assessment | Tariff Watch

Sources: AAFC — Canada’s Poultry Import Regime | Global Affairs Canada — Supply-Managed TRQs

Animal Health Status

THIS SECTION REQUIRES IMMEDIATE ATTENTION. Active HPAI premises exist in Prairie provinces during peak spring migration risk.

HPAI — Domestic (HIGHEST PRIORITY)

As of the CFIA’s most recent provincial status update (page last modified February 21, 2026; data current to January 21, 2026), confirmed active infected premises stand as follows:

The CFIA has established Primary Control Zones (PCZs) around all confirmed premises. Within a PCZ, permits are required for the movement of birds, their products, and by-products. Producers in or adjacent to active PCZs in Alberta and Saskatchewan must operate under PCZ permit conditions for any bird movement. Check current zone boundaries using the CFIA AI Zones interactive map before any movement decision.

The timing is critical. Spring wild bird migration is now underway across the Prairies. H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b is endemic in migratory waterfowl populations. Spring and fall migration are the primary introduction pathways for HPAI into commercial operations. With 9 active premises in Alberta and 3 in Saskatchewan, the combination of existing outbreak activity and peak migration overlap represents the highest biosecurity risk window of the year for Prairie poultry producers.

Required biosecurity actions for all Prairie producers:

• Enforce strict controlled access zones around all barn entrances
• Eliminate or minimize standing water near barns that attracts waterfowl
• Inspect and seal roof and wall gaps that allow wild bird access
• Ensure all barn workers are following full PPE and decontamination protocols
• Report any sudden increase in bird mortality or respiratory distress to a veterinarian immediately — do not wait

CFIA’s stamping-out policy applies to all confirmed HPAI premises: all birds on an infected premises are destroyed and composted on-site. Export market access implications of any new Canadian HPAI confirmation are immediate — major importing countries including Japan, South Korea, and China typically impose province-wide or national import bans upon confirmation.

HPAI funding: CFIA received renewed funding for 2025–2026 to maintain early detection, active prevention, and rapid response measures for H5N1, including enhanced cattle surveillance and support for animal vaccine development for domestic flocks.

HPAI — International

Canada maintains active import restrictions on raw and unprocessed poultry from multiple countries with ongoing HPAI outbreaks. As of March 16, 2026, CFIA data confirms Brazil is under a country-wide restriction effective February 23, 2026, until further notice. WOAH continues to report H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b in wild bird and poultry populations globally. Monitor WOAH situation reports for outbreak activity in Japan, South Korea, and China — confirmation in any of those markets has direct implications for Canadian export access.

LPAI and Newcastle Disease

No LPAI or virulent Newcastle Disease (vND) detections have been publicly confirmed in Canadian commercial flocks as of this reporting date. Canada remains free of vND. Continue monitoring CFIA alerts.

Sources: CFIA — Status of Ongoing Avian Influenza Response by Province | CFIA — Detections of Avian Influenza in Canada (Zone Map) | CFIA — HPAI Countries Free of Disease / Import Restrictions | CFIA — Public Statement: Canada’s Response to H5N1

Cross-Reference to Related WFR Coverage

CUSMA Joint Review — Supply Management Exposure Assessment | Tariff Watch

Feed Grain Weekly — Prairie Conditions April 2026 | Input Prices

Alberta Energy Price Monitor — April 2026 | Input Prices

Tags: HPAI, avian influenza, H5N1, Chicken Farmers of Canada, MSQ, quota allocation, Alberta Chicken Producers, CUSMA joint review, supply management, biosecurity

Link Check: All outbound links verified against source homepages. CFIA provincial status page last confirmed active April 25, 2026. CFIA zone map active. AER ST98 page active. CFC Allocation Calendar 2026–2027 active. Farm Products Council A-200 decision letter PDF active. AAFC poultry import regime page active. Global Affairs Canada TRQ page active.

This post was produced with AI assistance. All sources are attributed and linked. Western Farm Report editorial standards apply.