Record Prairie Grain Stocks Heading Into Seeding — Wheat Carry-Out Elevated, Canola Supply Tightening for 2026–27

Canadian Crop Conditions

Prairie producers head into the 2026 seeding window carrying the weight of a record 2025 harvest. Total stocks of principal field crops across Canada were 10.2% higher than one year earlier and 15.8% above the five-year average as of December 31, 2025, according to Statistics Canada’s Stocks of Principal Field Crops report released February 6, 2026. That build-up reflects a 2025 crop year in which total national production of principal field crops rose 10% year-over-year and finished 16% above the five-year average, as reported by Statistics Canada’s November Field Crop Survey.

The structural story in the current stocks position is where the grain is sitting. Commercial elevator positions — the stocks that move through the licensed system — are relatively lean for both wheat and canola as of December 31. The bulk of the 2025 harvest remains on farms. That on-farm concentration shapes the receival outlook heading into a spring when producers will be turning their attention to seeding and, eventually, positioning new-crop grain for delivery.

Wheat

Total wheat stocks reached 27.5 million tonnes (Mt) as of December 31, 2025, up 5.9% year-over-year, according to Statistics Canada’s February 6 release. On-farm wheat stocks climbed 7.2% to 24.1 Mt. Commercial wheat stocks, however, declined 2.7% to 3.4 Mt — a counterintuitive result given the record harvest, and a direct indicator of how aggressively grain has been moving through the licensed elevator system.

That movement pace is confirmed by Canadian Grain Commission (CGC) data incorporated in Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s (AAFC) Outlook for Principal Field Crops released April 17, 2026. Wheat deliveries off farm totalled a record 17.1 Mt through December 31, surpassing the previous record of 15.8 Mt set in 2024. Wheat exports reached 12.1 Mt over the same period, also a record, running 7.9% ahead of the prior year.

Despite the record movement pace, the carry-out position for 2025-26 wheat remains elevated. AAFC’s April 17 Outlook places 2025-26 wheat carry-out at 7.250 Mt, with new-crop 2026-27 ending stocks forecast at 5.750 Mt. Total wheat supply for 2025-26 is estimated at 36.6 Mt — the highest on record — a function of unprecedented Prairie yields. The Saskatchewan average spot price for Canada Western Red Spring (CWRS) No. 1, 13.5% protein for 2026-27 is forecast at $280 per tonne, up modestly from the current crop year but remaining well below the price levels of 2022-23 and 2023-24.

CWRS quality from the 2025 harvest is solid. According to CGC data cited in the AAFC January 2026 Outlook, 71% of samples graded as No. 1 CWRS and another 20% as No. 2 as of late December 2025, with average protein content at 13.7% — in line with the long-term average.

Durum supply is also elevated. Statistics Canada placed total durum farm stocks at 4.4 Mt and commercial stocks at just under 1.0 Mt as of December 31, 2025 — up 12% and 59% respectively from one year earlier, per the February 6 stocks release. Export pace for durum has been strong: CGC data in AAFC’s April 17 Outlook shows cumulative durum exports of 3.8 Mt through Week 34 (ending March 29, 2026), running 4% ahead of the prior year and 24% above the five-year average. Total 2025-26 durum supply is estimated at 7.6 Mt, with the export forecast revised upward in the April Outlook as producer deliveries and shipments continue to clear the system quickly.

Canola

The canola stocks picture carries a different structure. Total canola stocks rose 18.1% year-over-year to 15.6 Mt as of December 31, 2025, driven entirely by on-farm accumulation: on-farm canola stocks increased 21.2% to 14.3 Mt, while commercial canola stocks fell 7.4% to 1.3 Mt, according to Statistics Canada’s February 6 release. The drop in commercial canola stocks reflects a difficult first half of the 2025-26 crop year, during which China’s anti-dumping duties on Canadian canola seed severely curtailed export volumes. Canola exports fell 36.1% in the August–December 2025 period, per the Statistics Canada stocks release, as Chinese purchases largely halted.

That dynamic has since reversed. China reduced tariffs on Canadian canola seed beginning March 2026 under a five-year agreement, and CGC export data in AAFC’s April 17 Outlook show canola export volumes in January–March 2026 running 52% above the August–December average. Still, cumulative canola exports to Week 34 remain 23% behind last year’s pace. AAFC holds its 2025-26 canola export forecast at 8.2 Mt, down 12% from last year’s four-year high of 9.3 Mt but 3% above the five-year average.

Total 2025-26 canola supply is estimated at 23.5 Mt, a five-year high, supported by record production of 21.8 Mt — 13% above 2024 output and 19% above the five-year average. Domestic crush is providing a significant offset to the export shortfall: AAFC forecasts 2025-26 crush at a record 12 Mt, up from 11.4 Mt in 2024-25, with Statistics Canada reporting 7 Mt crushed through the end of February. Current crush pace is running 3% ahead of the prior year.

The 2025-26 carry-out is forecast at 2.765 Mt — substantially above last year’s 1.6 Mt. The more significant forward signal is the 2026-27 carry-out forecast, which AAFC reduced to 1.064 Mt in the April 17 Outlook, down from 1.460 Mt in the March projection. If realized, that would be the tightest canola ending stocks position since 2012-13. The compression is being driven by forecast record domestic crush of 13.2 Mt in 2026-27 as new processing capacity comes online, combined with a projected modest decline in exports to 7.8 Mt under reduced production assumptions. New-crop canola price — No. 1 Track Vancouver — is forecast at $685/tonne for 2025-26, up $10 from the March estimate but still well below the five-year average of $811/tonne.

Canola quality from the 2025 harvest is strong. CGC’s Harvest Sample Program shows 95% of submitted samples rated No. 1, with average oil content at 43.6% — above the prior year.

Decision Context

Canola acreage — tightest forward stocks picture in over a decade

The current cash price environment for canola is suppressed by the weight of a record 2025 harvest and an export program that spent the first half of the crop year hampered by Chinese tariffs. Producers carrying large on-farm canola stocks into seeding face a bearish near-term price signal. The forward picture, however, is materially different. AAFC’s April 17 Outlook projects 2026-27 canola ending stocks at 1.064 Mt — a decade-low level driven by record domestic crush demand and restored Chinese import access. The seeded area estimate underpinning that outlook was collected before the China trade normalization took effect and before escalating geopolitical risks altered input cost projections, per AAFC’s own caveat in the April 17 report. The degree to which 2026 canola acreage ultimately holds or expands from the Statistics Canada March intentions estimate will be the primary supply variable for the 2026-27 balance sheet.

Production decisions made in the next four to six weeks — canola seeding window — will set that supply trajectory. WFR Asia Intel and WFR Tariff Watch are tracking the China trade file and demand-side signals that bear directly on that carry-out forecast.

Wheat — elevated carry-out moderates price outlook, but export demand remains firm

Wheat carry-out at 7.250 Mt for 2025-26 reflects a supply overhang that will weigh on new-crop pricing. The $280/tonne CWRS 1, 13.5% Saskatchewan spot price forecast for 2026-27 is improved modestly from the current crop year but sits below historical price support levels. The quality signal is positive — average protein at 13.7% keeps Canadian CWRS competitive in premium milling markets. Export pace through the licensed system has been running above prior year, which is the more relevant near-term indicator. Buyers in key markets — Indonesia, Bangladesh, and Middle East and North Africa importers — continue to pull Canadian wheat at above-average volume.

Rail revenue cap and receival capacity — the logistics backdrop to this stocks position

The scale of the on-farm stock position — over 24 Mt of wheat and 14 Mt of canola sitting on Prairie farms as of December 31 — means the licensed elevator system will face sustained receival demand through seeding season and into the next harvest cycle. The federal rail revenue cap framework sets the ceiling on how railways price grain movement, directly affecting elevator throughput economics and the pace at which commercial positions can be rebuilt. WFR Transportation’s examination of the 2026-27 VRCPI adjustment provides the regulatory context for how that movement capacity is being priced. Federal Rail Revenue Cap Adjusted for 2026–2027: What the New VRCPI Means for Prairie Grain Movement

What to Watch

Statistics Canada — Stocks of Principal Field Crops as of March 31, 2026 (release date: May 6, 2026): This is the next major stocks data point and the first read on how much of the large on-farm wheat and canola position moved during the January–March window. A meaningful drawdown in farm stocks would signal producers are accelerating sales ahead of seeding. A flat or rising commercial position would indicate elevator system absorption is keeping pace. This release will materially update the carry-out trajectory for both crops.

AAFC Outlook for Principal Field Crops (next release: May 21, 2026): Will incorporate the March 31 stocks data and update carry-out forecasts for both 2025-26 and 2026-27. Watch for any revision to the 2026-27 canola ending stocks estimate, which AAFC already flagged as sensitive to seeded area outcomes.

Statistics Canada — Seeded Area Survey (release date: June 30, 2026): Based on survey data collected in late May and early June, this will be the first confirmed read on actual 2026 canola and wheat seeded area — the key variable in the 2026-27 canola supply equation.

CGC weekly export inspections: Canola export pace against the 8.2 Mt annual target is the most time-sensitive tracking indicator. The year-to-date deficit versus last year narrows or widens each week.

Cross-Reference to Related WFR Coverage

Federal Rail Revenue Cap Adjusted for 2026–2027: What the New VRCPI Means for Prairie Grain Movement — WFR Transportation’s coverage of the VRCPI adjustment and its implications for elevator receival economics and Prairie grain movement capacity.

Tags: canola stocks 2026, CWRS wheat carry-out, Prairie grain elevator receival, Statistics Canada field crop stocks, AAFC outlook principal field crops, Saskatchewan canola acreage, on-farm grain storage, Canada grain exports, canola crush capacity, wheat export pace Canada

This post was produced with AI assistance. All sources are attributed and linked. Western Farm Report editorial standards apply.