Record Highs and Real Risk: What’s Driving Feeder Cattle Prices Canada-Wide in 2025-26

Prairie Livestock Series

Steer calves in the 500–525 lb. range were trading around $500 per hundredweight (cwt) in central Alberta at the start of 2025. By April of that year, 300–400 lb. steer calves in Saskatchewan had cleared the $600/cwt mark for the first time on record. Those are not misprint numbers—they reflect a structural shift in feeder cattle prices Canada has been building toward for several years, and the drivers behind them are not going away anytime soon.

For cow-calf producers across Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba, this market is delivering the kind of returns that look great on paper. But the same conditions producing those prices—a shrinking national herd, tightening supply, aggressive feedlot demand, and ongoing U.S. trade uncertainty—are also creating real operational risk. Understanding both sides of this equation is the only way to make sound decisions on when to sell, whether to hold back heifers, and how to position for the next 18 months.

What the Feeder Cattle Prices Canada Is Seeing Right Now

Central Alberta remains the benchmark for the western Canadian feeder market, and the numbers from late 2024 through mid-2025 set new reference points across the board. Backgrounded yearling steers averaging 900 lbs. were trading around $350/cwt in December 2024. Steer calves at 700 lbs. were readily changing hands at approximately $400/cwt, while similarly weighted heifers moved at roughly $350/cwt.

Into the spring of 2025, prices pushed further. Saskatchewan’s weekly cattle market data, reported through the Saskatchewan Ministry of Agriculture, showed record prices set in multiple weight categories for the week ending April 18, 2025. The 300–400 lb. steer category broke through $600/cwt. Multiple heifer categories also hit records—the 700–800 lb. heifer class averaged above $400/cwt for the first time. Alberta fed steers were tracking around $283–$321/cwt live through the first and second quarters of 2025, with Western Canadian dressed sales reported at record levels through early 2026.

These figures are not a one-week spike. The Saskatchewan Ministry of Agriculture was reporting year-to-date feeder cattle marketings running 13 to 27 per cent above 2024 levels at various points through the spring, with prices consistently setting or approaching records in most weight classes. The market has had staying power because the fundamentals underpinning it are not soft.

The Supply-Side Case for Elevated Feeder Cattle Prices Canada-Wide

The Canadian Herd Is at a Generational Low

Statistics Canada data released in February 2025 confirmed Canadian cattle and calves on farms totalled 10.9 million head as of January 1, 2025—down 0.7 per cent year over year and the smallest inventory since 1988. Beef cow inventories stood at 3.38 million head, the lowest since 1989, with declines in every province except Ontario and Quebec. Alberta was down 1.6 per cent, Manitoba down 1.5 per cent, Saskatchewan down 0.9 per cent.

The herd contraction was years in the making. Prolonged drought across the Prairies—particularly severe in 2021–2022—forced widespread herd liquidation. Producers sold off breeding stock to manage feed costs and pasture pressure. Strong prices created the counter-pressure that should have triggered retention, but they also tempted many producers to keep marketing rather than rebuild. Farm succession pressures and competition from crop production for land added to the structural headwinds.

Statistics Canada’s July 2025 livestock estimates showed the first year-over-year increase in the national herd since 2021—reaching 11.9 million head, up 0.8 per cent from a year earlier. That is a modest turn, not a reset. Breeding stock retention is rising, and the 2025 calf crop (January–June births) was up 1.8 per cent year over year. But the rebuild will be measured in years, not seasons, and feeder cattle supplies will remain tighter than historical averages in the near term.

U.S. Herd Pressure Is Adding Cross-Border Lift

Canada does not operate a closed market. The U.S. cattle herd was estimated at 86.7 million head on January 1, 2025—down 0.6 per cent from a year earlier and near multi-decade lows following six consecutive years of declining calf crops. Beef cow numbers in the U.S. stood at 27.9 million head, their smallest since 2014.

Tightening U.S. supply has been propping up cross-border demand for Canadian feeder cattle. At the same time, the United States suspended imports of Mexican feeder cattle—roughly 1.2 million head annually—after New World screwworm was detected near the Mexico-Guatemala border. With that supply removed from the market through early-to-mid 2025, U.S. feedlot demand shifted more aggressively toward North American sources, including Canadian cattle. The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) noted that Canada imported more than 253,000 head of U.S. feeder cattle in 2024, a record that itself reflects how Canadian feedlots were compensating for the domestic shortfall.

The cross-border market dynamic is creating upward price pull from the south at the same time domestic supplies are tight. That alignment has historically produced sustained price strength, and 2025 confirmed that pattern.

Heifer Retention Is Reducing the Feeder Pool

One of the structural shifts underway is heifer retention. In 2025, both Canada and the United States began the herd rebuild process in earnest. The expectation heading into 2025 was that around 60,000 heifers would be held back in Western Canada for breeding purposes—a meaningful reduction in the number of heifers flowing through the feeder market. In the U.S., analysts projected 500,000 to 600,000 heifers would be retained for herd rebuilding.

For Prairie producers trying to buy stockers or yearling heifers, this dynamic is making lighter-weight feeder heifers harder to find and more expensive when they do appear. For cow-calf operations evaluating whether to sell or retain, the decision is carrying higher opportunity cost in both directions than it has in a decade.

Trade Risk Is Still on the Table

CUSMA has provided significant protection for Canadian live cattle and beef exports. When the U.S. administration imposed broad tariffs on Canadian goods in early 2025, CUSMA-compliant products—including live cattle and beef—were carved out, avoiding the 25 per cent tariff that applied to other Canadian exports. That exemption held through subsequent tariff rounds in the spring of 2025.

That protection matters enormously. The U.S. accounts for virtually all of Canada’s live cattle exports, with nearly 578,000 head shipped south in the first 11 months of 2024 alone—up 17 per cent from the prior year, according to the Canadian Food Inspection Agency. Approximately 70 per cent of Canadian beef exports also flow to the United States. A disruption to CUSMA compliance—or a policy change that removes the exemption—would hit the Prairie beef sector hard and fast.

Economic modelling by independent analysts suggests that a full 25 per cent tariff on Canadian beef and cattle would reduce feeder cattle prices in Canada by roughly 16.5 per cent. Fed cattle export volumes would drop sharply. Those scenarios have not materialized, but CUSMA comes up for review in 2026, and trade uncertainty is not going away. For producers making capital decisions based on current price levels, maintaining a margin of safety is not overcaution.

On the upside, China restored access for Canadian beef in 2025, reversing a ban in place since 2021. Canadian beef exports to China were approximately $200 million annually before the ban. That market reactivation, combined with ongoing diversification efforts in Japan, South Korea, the United Arab Emirates, and other markets, is providing alternative channels if U.S. access were to face disruption.

Feedlot Demand: Why Bidding Stays Aggressive

Feedlot margins improved significantly through 2024 and into 2025, partly due to lower-than-expected feed grain costs. Barley prices moderated from their 2022–2023 highs, improving break-even calculations for Alberta and Saskatchewan feeding operations. When feedlots can pencil out a reasonable margin, they bid aggressively for available feeder cattle—and available numbers have been lean.

Cattle on feed in Alberta and Saskatchewan as of December 1, 2024 totalled 1.092 million head, down six per cent from the prior year. That drawdown in on-feed numbers going into winter positioned feedlots to actively pursue spring placements, supporting the record prices posted through the first and second quarters of 2025.

The other driver of feedlot demand is forward pricing on fed cattle. As fed cattle prices pushed above $300/cwt and into record territory through 2025—Alberta fed steers trading in the low $320s/cwt live as recently as late March 2026—the margin on finished cattle improved enough to justify paying record prices for feeders. That feed-to-finish calculation is what ultimately sets the ceiling on feeder prices, and the ceiling has been rising.

Managing Risk at Record Prices

Livestock Price Insurance

Alberta producers have access to the Cattle Price Insurance Program (CPIP) through Livestock Price Insurance (LPI), which provides a floor price on future cattle sales. With feeder prices at historical highs, locking in downside protection on a portion of planned calf marketings is worth running through the numbers. Spring 2025 LPI-Calf coverage was available for purchase from February through June. Producers who missed the 2025 window should monitor the 2026 opening, particularly given the ongoing CUSMA review timeline.

AgriStability Enhancements

The federal government and Saskatchewan made meaningful changes to AgriStability for the 2025 program year in response to trade uncertainty and drought conditions. The compensation rate was raised from 80 per cent to 90 per cent, meaning producers who trigger a benefit receive 90 cents per dollar of eligible margin decline rather than 80 cents. The maximum payment cap also doubled from $3 million to $6 million per operation for 2025.

Saskatchewan producers access AgriStability through the Saskatchewan Crop Insurance Corporation (SCIC). Alberta producers access the program through Agriculture Financial Services Corporation (AFSC). The program covers margin declines caused by market downturns, rising input costs, and production losses—all conditions relevant to the current operating environment. Producers who have not run the numbers on their historical reference margin and current margin exposure should do that now, regardless of whether prices stay high or correct.

For 2026, changes to feed inventory pricing for livestock producers will be permanently incorporated into AgriStability, along with potential inclusion of rented pasture grazing as an allowable expense. Both changes address longstanding gaps for cow-calf operators. Government of Canada and Government of Saskatchewan announcements provide program details.

AgriInvest

AgriInvest remains the simplest available tool for capturing high-income years and building a reserve against future downturns. The program matches producer deposits up to 1 per cent of allowable net sales. In a year with strong calf prices, contributions to Fund 1 and the matching government contribution to Fund 2 can accumulate meaningful reserves. Producers with average ANS over $1 million in the three prior program years must now complete an Agri-Environmental Risk Assessment to qualify for the government match—a new requirement for the 2025 program year. The initial AgriInvest deadline for the 2025 program year is June 30, 2026.

The Heifer Retention Decision

For cow-calf producers, the question of whether to sell heifers at record prices or retain them for breeding is the most consequential decision of the next 12 months. The price signal for retention has never been clearer—the market is paying a premium for genetics, feedlots are competing hard for animals, and the long-term trajectory for a tighter herd points to sustained strength in calf prices for the next several years.

At the same time, retaining heifers to replace cull cows or expand the breeding herd means passing up $350–$400/cwt or more on animals that could go to auction today. On a 100-lb. heifer at $380/cwt, that’s $380 per head in foregone immediate revenue, before considering the additional feed, wintering, and breeding costs over the next 12 to 14 months before that heifer contributes her first calf.

The answer is not the same for every operation. Producers with good pasture base and low wintering costs have a stronger case for retention than those with marginal feed resources or high overhead. What the current market does not support is a passive decision—delaying the retention choice until fall and then making it reactively based on auction volumes and whatever weather has done to pasture.

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s USDA FAS attaché report for Canada projected that significant heifer retention in Canada would not be realized until post-2025, partly due to strong price incentives to sell and partly due to continued weather uncertainty in some Prairie regions. That delays the supply rebuild and means elevated feeder cattle prices Canada-wide are likely to remain the structural norm through at least 2026 and into 2027.

SOURCES CONSULTED

Statistics Canada – Livestock Estimates, January 2025 and July 2025: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250225/dq250225b-eng.htm

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada – AgriStability Program: https://agriculture.canada.ca/en/programs/agristability

Government of Saskatchewan – 2025 AgriStability Program Changes: https://www.canada.ca/en/agriculture-agri-food/news/2025/07/governments-of-canada-and-saskatchewan-announce-changes-to-2025-agristability-program.html

USDA Foreign Agricultural Service Ottawa – Livestock and Products Annual (Canada): https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Livestock+and+Products+Annual_Ottawa_Canada_CA2024-0044

TAGS: feeder cattle prices Canada, Prairie cattle market, cow-calf producers, Alberta beef, Saskatchewan cattle, CUSMA beef trade, AgriStability 2025, cattle herd rebuild, heifer retention, livestock risk management

LEGAL DISCLAIMER

This report was developed with the assistance of artificial intelligence and is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, agronomic, or legal advice and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for farm planning, risk management, or operational decision-making. Western Farm Report assumes no liability for actions taken based on the contents of this report. Readers are encouraged to verify data with primary sources and consult qualified professional advisors before making financial or operational commitments.