2025 CWRS Crop Delivers Average Protein at Record Volume — What It Means for Export Position and 2026 Acreage
Canadian Crop Conditions
The 2025 Canada Western Red Spring (CWRS) wheat harvest closed with protein at the ten-year average and a production volume that has substantially rebuilt Canada’s supply position — a combination that has direct implications for how this crop moves through export channels and how producers should be thinking about spring wheat acres in 2026.
According to the Canadian Grain Commission’s 2025 Harvest Quality Report, mean protein content for CWRS came in at 13.8%, equal to the ten-year average and down from 14.1% in 2024. Ninety-one percent of the 2,475 samples graded No. 1 or No. 2 — with the grade distribution running 71% No. 1 and 20% No. 2. The primary downgrade factor was hard vitreous kernels (HVK) below the 65% threshold for No. 1, which accounts for 13.4% of all samples landing in the No. 2 category. HVK at these levels does not affect milling performance or flour functionality; it is a visual grading characteristic that does not compromise end-product quality.
The western prairie aggregate — covering British Columbia, Alberta, and western Saskatchewan — averaged 13.7% protein, fractionally below the national mean. The eastern prairie aggregate, covering eastern Saskatchewan and Manitoba, ran slightly higher. Both regions delivered milling yields on the Bühler test mill of 76.5% or greater on a clean wheat basis, above corresponding 2024 figures. Falling Number values were strong across all aggregates (above 350 seconds), and DON levels came in clean — 99.0% of samples under 1.0 ppm, with 83% under 0.3 ppm. The disease profile is effectively a non-issue for this crop year.
What bears watching is what 13.8% protein means in a year of high volume. According to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s (AAFC) Outlook for Principal Field Crops (March 2026), CWRS production for 2025-26 reached 24.4 million tonnes (Mt), up 11% from 22.3 Mt in 2024. Total Canadian wheat supply is forecast at a record 36.5 Mt for 2025-26. The Canadian Grain Commission (CGC) reports that as of late December 2025, exports were running 6% ahead of the prior year’s pace through the licensed elevator system. That export momentum is absorbing the larger volume — but it is doing so at 13.8% protein in a globally well-supplied year, which compresses the premium above 13.5%.
The ten-year protein average is not a quality problem — 13.8% clears buyer specifications in Canada’s primary export markets. Japan’s purchasing programs primarily target No. 1 CWRS, and the CGC data confirms the grade integrity of this crop is sound. The issue for producers managing the 2025 crop this marketing year is that protein premiums above 13.5% are thin in a year when global supplies are ample and competing origins are strong. The AAFC March 2026 Outlook pegs the 2025-26 Saskatchewan average spot price for CWRS 1, 13.5% protein at $265/tonne — up $5/tonne from the February forecast on Middle East geopolitical pressure, but still down 8% from the 2024-25 average.
Variety trends in the 2025 harvest data carry a longer-run signal worth noting. AAC Brandon — Canada’s most widely grown CWRS variety — held the top position but continued its multi-year acreage decline, dropping from 25% of total CWRS acres in 2024 to 22% in 2025. AAC Wheatland climbed to 17% (from 15%), AAC Starbuck held at 13%, AAC Hodge jumped to 9% (from 5%), and AAC Hockley held at 5%. The shift toward newer varieties offering higher yield potential with comparable quality is a structural feature of the Prairie wheat system, not a 2025-specific event — but the pace of AAC Brandon’s decline is worth producers tracking as they consider seed sourcing for 2026.
Decision Context
US winter wheat drought — watch for hard spring wheat supply implications in 2026-27. The USDA’s April 2026 Wheat Outlook reports that 65% of US winter wheat production area was in drought as of March 31, 2026 — up sharply from 37% at the same point in 2025 and from 34% as recently as December 2025. Only 35% of the US winter wheat crop rated good or excellent as of April 5, compared to 48% a year ago. US winter wheat production is the largest single wheat class in North America, but the drought signal for US Hard Red Spring wheat in 2026 is the more direct CWRS comparator. If US HRS production underperforms in 2026, it tightens global hard spring wheat supply and supports CWRS premiums into the 2026-27 marketing year — the exact year that 2026 Prairie seeding decisions will supply. This is the key external risk to monitor as seeding begins. WFR US Markets
Southeast Asia and Middle East import demand is expanding — Canada’s core CWRS markets are strengthening. The USDA’s April 2026 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) shows import demand rising in Southeast Asia (+4.2 Mt year-on-year), the Middle East (+3.6 Mt), and Bangladesh (+1.6 Mt). These are Canada’s primary CWRS destination markets — Indonesia, Bangladesh, the Philippines, Japan, and the Middle East collectively absorb the majority of Canadian hard spring wheat exports. Strong import demand from these buyers provides the demand-side floor for CWRS movement in the 2025-26 marketing year and into 2026-27. Producers evaluating whether CWRS pencils out for 2026 relative to canola or other alternatives should weight this demand base when assessing downside price risk. WFR Asia Intel
2026-27 CWRS price outlook has moved higher. The AAFC March 2026 Outlook raised the 2026-27 Saskatchewan average spot price forecast for CWRS 1, 13.5% protein to $275/tonne — up $5/tonne from the February forecast and up from the 2025-26 forecast of $265/tonne. The upward revision reflects geopolitical pressure in the Middle East supporting global wheat prices. For producers finalizing 2026 crop plans, $275/tonne at 13.5% protein is the current AAFC benchmark for new crop return modeling. Any tightening in global hard spring wheat supply — from the US drought scenario or from reduced Canadian acreage — would provide additional support above that level. WFR Tariff Watch
2026 seeding intentions show spring wheat area essentially stable — acreage competition is primarily internal to wheat classes. Statistics Canada’s Principal Field Crop Areas report (March 5, 2026) projects national spring wheat area down 0.1% to 18.8 million acres. Saskatchewan spring wheat is expected to fall 0.6% to 8.7 million acres; Alberta spring wheat is forecast up 3.6% to 6.8 million acres. Manitoba total wheat area is projected down 5.1%. The modest overall decline reflects canola area firming (+1.0% nationally to 21.8 million acres), with canola’s recovery from China trade disruptions drawing some acres. For CWRS producers, the acreage competition in 2026 is less about a dramatic shift away from wheat and more about internal allocation between CWRS, durum (down 2.4% nationally to 6.4 million acres), and winter wheat (down 6.7% to 1.6 million acres). WFR Tariff Watch
What to Watch
- AAFC Outlook for Principal Field Crops — April 18, 2026. This release will update the 2025-26 supply and disposition tables and provide AAFC’s revised 2026-27 price and production outlook incorporating the latest seeded area intentions. Watch for any revision to the CWRS 1, 13.5% price forecast and for updated export pace data from the CGC.
- Statistics Canada Stocks of Principal Field Crops — May 6, 2026. This report will provide grain stocks as of March 31, 2026 — the first quarterly stocks read of the 2026 calendar year. The March 31 stocks figure will confirm how effectively the record 2025 CWRS crop is clearing through the licensed elevator system and whether carry-in heading into the 2026-27 crop year is building or contracting.
- Statistics Canada Seeded Area Estimates — June 30, 2026. The June report, based on a May/June survey, will provide the first verified acreage read for the 2026 crop year. The March intentions survey has Alberta spring wheat up sharply (+3.6%) and Saskatchewan spring wheat down modestly. Whether Alberta’s projected expansion materializes — and in which wheat classes — is the key domestic acreage variable for the 2026-27 supply outlook.
- USDA NASS Crop Progress (weekly, April–November). US winter wheat condition ratings through spring green-up will determine whether the current drought-stressed US winter wheat crop recovers or compounds into a supply tightening signal for global hard wheat. Weekly ratings from USDA NASS are the primary indicator to track. WFR US Markets
Cross-Reference to Related WFR Coverage
US Markets — US Winter Wheat Drought: Hard Spring Wheat Supply Risk for 2026-27
Tariff Watch — CWRS Price Outlook and Geopolitical Pressure on Global Wheat Markets
Tags: CWRS wheat, wheat protein content, Canadian Grain Commission, Prairie wheat quality, 2025 harvest, AAFC crop outlook, spring wheat acreage 2026, Saskatchewan wheat, Alberta wheat, milling wheat exports
This post was produced with AI assistance. All sources are attributed and linked. Western Farm Report editorial standards apply.