CWRS Price Forecast Improves Heading Into Seeding — But Abundant Supply Caps the Upside for Saskatchewan Spring Wheat

Canadian Crop Conditions

Saskatchewan spring wheat producers are heading into the 2026 seeding window with a price picture that has improved modestly from last fall but remains well below recent highs. The structural constraint is clear: a record 2025 harvest has pushed carry-out stocks sharply higher, and that inventory overhang will limit how far prices can run even as global demand strengthens.

According to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s (AAFC) March 18, 2026 Outlook for Principal Field Crops, the average Saskatchewan producer spot price for No. 1 Canadian Western Red Spring wheat (CWRS 1, 13.5% protein) for the 2025-26 crop year is forecast at $265 per tonne — down 8% year-on-year. For the incoming 2026-27 crop year, AAFC raised its forecast $5 per tonne in the March report to $275 per tonne, a modest improvement that reflects tighter projected carry-out and continued export demand for high-protein milling wheat. Both figures remain below the 2024-25 realized price level.

The supply context driving that price ceiling is significant. Statistics Canada’s final production estimate, released December 4, 2025, put 2025 CWRS output at a record 32.8 million tonnes (Mt) — up 11% from 2024-25 and well above the five-year average. Saskatchewan accounted for 39% of national wheat production. Quality from the 2025 crop was strong: as of late December 2025, the Canadian Grain Commission (CGC) reported 71% of CWRS samples graded No. 1 and an additional 20% as No. 2, with average protein at 13.7% — in line with the long-term average and fully meeting buyer specifications in key export markets.

Strong quality supported strong movement. CGC data cited in the AAFC March report shows Canadian wheat exports through the licensed elevator system running 6% ahead of the prior year’s pace on a crop-year-to-date basis, with the full-year export forecast unchanged at 23.2 Mt. That pace has helped absorb record supply, but carry-out stocks for 2025-26 are still projected to rise sharply. For 2026-27, AAFC projects closing stocks falling to 4.5 Mt — 24% below opening inventories — which provides the fundamental underpinning for the modest price improvement forecast. That stock drawdown, however, is contingent on a return to average yields from what was an exceptional 2025 growing season.

On acreage, Statistics Canada’s March 5, 2026 Principal Field Crop Areas report — based on a December 2025–January 2026 producer survey — shows Saskatchewan spring wheat intentions edging down 0.6% to 8.7 million acres. Nationally, spring wheat area is forecast to slip 0.1% to 18.8 million acres. The modest acreage contraction reflects cautious producer sentiment in the face of prices running below the five-year average. AAFC’s March report notes the survey was completed before several market-moving developments, including the Canada-China canola tariff reduction and the Iran conflict, which have introduced both upside and downside variables that may influence final seeded area.

Seeding conditions entering the 2026 growing season are geographically split. Saskatchewan Water Security Agency data from April 17, 2026 confirms that most of the province can anticipate near-to-below-normal spring runoff, with above-normal conditions expected across central Saskatchewan and well-above-normal conditions in the east-central region around Hudson Bay and north of Yorkton. The southwest — from Kindersley to Assiniboia — remains the driest zone, carrying a multi-year moisture deficit into seeding. Fall 2025 soil moisture data from the Saskatchewan Ministry of Agriculture showed the western half of the province entering freeze-up short to very short on cropland moisture. In the southwest, meaningful yield recovery for any crop, including spring wheat, depends on timely growing-season rainfall that the subsoil moisture base cannot backstop.

Sources: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Outlook for Principal Field Crops, March 18, 2026 | Statistics Canada, Principal Field Crop Areas, March 5, 2026 | Saskatchewan Water Security Agency, April 2026 Spring Runoff Outlook, April 17, 2026| Saskatchewan Ministry of Agriculture, Crop Report, 2025 final | Canadian Grain Commission, harvest sample data via AAFC

Decision Context

Three external signals are directly relevant to spring wheat acreage and marketing decisions heading into seeding.

US winter wheat drought — supply-side support for CWRS price. The USDA’s March 2026 WASDE report shows 56% of the US winter wheat production area currently affected by drought. Any material reduction in the US winter wheat crop this summer tightens global high-protein wheat supply and supports CWRS price in the second half of 2026 and into the new crop year. Producers forward-contracting 2026 CWRS should factor this supply risk into their decision timing rather than treating current prices as the ceiling. This is an active file. WFR US Markets

Asian and Middle East import demand — export floor for Canadian wheat. AAFC’s March 2026 report incorporates USDA trade data showing global wheat import demand rising from Southeast Asia (+4.2 Mt), the Middle East (+3.6 Mt), North Africa (+2 Mt), and Bangladesh (+1.6 Mt). Canadian CWRS is directly competitive in these markets, and strong export pace to date — running 6% above last year — confirms Canadian wheat is moving. The demand side is not the constraint on CWRS price; supply is. Producers considering CWRS acreage allocation can take some comfort that the export program should remain intact, but should not expect demand alone to push prices materially above the AAFC $275/t 2026-27 forecast absent a supply disruption. WFR Asia Intel

Closing stocks tightening into 2026-27 — a price signal, not a price guarantee. AAFC projects 2026-27 Canadian wheat closing stocks falling 24% from opening inventories to 4.5 Mt. That drawdown is the primary justification for the $10/t year-over-year improvement in the CWRS price forecast. It assumes a return to average yields after the exceptional 2025 season. If 2026 Prairie growing conditions produce another above-average crop — not implausible given adequate moisture in central Saskatchewan — the stock drawdown will be shallower and the price improvement will be smaller than forecast. The southwest moisture deficit, by contrast, introduces downside yield risk in those regions that could steepen the drawdown. WFR Transportation

What to Watch

Statistics Canada, Stocks of Principal Field Crops as of March 31, 2026 — release scheduled May 6, 2026. This is the first read on how much 2025 production remains in the system at the end of the crop year’s third quarter. A below-forecast stocks number would support the CWRS price improvement thesis; an above-forecast number would raise the ceiling question again. Source: Statistics Canada release calendar

AAFC Outlook for Principal Field Crops, April 18, 2026 — first post-March-11 update incorporating any trade policy and geopolitical developments, including the ongoing Iran conflict and its fertilizer and shipping cost implications. Monitor for any revision to the $275/t CWRS 2026-27 price forecast. Source: AAFC outlook series

Statistics Canada, Seeded Area Estimates, June 30, 2026 — the first survey-based confirmation of actual seeded spring wheat acres, conducted in late May and early June. The December-January seeding intentions survey predates the Iran conflict and the Canada-China agreement; actual seeded area may diverge from the 8.7 million acre Saskatchewan intention figure. Source: Statistics Canada, release June 30, 2026.

Saskatchewan Ministry of Agriculture weekly crop report — weekly from April 1 through late October. First reports on seeding progress and emergence conditions will provide early indicators on whether the southwest moisture deficit has been ameliorated by growing-season rainfall. Source: Saskatchewan Ministry of Agriculture

Tags: spring wheat, CWRS, Saskatchewan, wheat prices, seeding intentions, crop supply, export demand, soil moisture, AAFC outlook, Statistics Canada

This post was produced with AI assistance. All sources are attributed and linked. Western Farm Report editorial standards apply.