Prairie Barley: Record 2025 Crop Sets Up a Complicated 2026 Marketing Year

Canadian producers harvested 9.7 million tonnes of barley in 2025 — a 19 percent jump over the previous year and the largest crop in recent memory. For Prairie barley growers, that number came with a mixed set of consequences: prices under pressure at harvest, carry-out stocks building to an eight-year high, and a marketing year defined as much by export demand as by local feedlot bids.

Going into spring 2026, the fundamentals have shifted. Supply is ample, but several demand variables — corn prices, export pace, and 2026 acreage intentions — are pulling the market in competing directions. Producers making seeding and marketing decisions now need a clear read on each of those factors.

2025 Crop in Numbers

Statistics Canada’s November 2025 Field Crop Survey put national barley yield at 79.4 bushels per acre, up 25.6 percent from the prior year and a record high. Alberta continued to dominate barley production, accounting for more than 50 percent of total Prairie acreage, with Saskatchewan at approximately 37 percent and Manitoba contributing the balance. Alberta’s seeded barley area was 3.3 million acres; Saskatchewan’s came in at 2.3 million acres.

The 2025 yield improvement was directly tied to precipitation timing. Dry early-season conditions across the Prairies gave way to timely late-summer rainfall that pushed yields sharply higher across Alberta and Saskatchewan. Harvest conditions were clean, and the crop moved off the field on pace with historical averages.

Harvested area nationally fell 4.9 percent to 5.6 million acres — producers had already been pulling back on barley acres in response to consecutive years of low yields in some barley-growing regions. The area contraction combined with record yields produced the 9.7 million tonne final number.

Total supply for the 2025-26 crop year reached 11.0 million tonnes, according to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC). That figure includes a carry-in that already sat at an eight-year high before the new crop added volume. AAFC projects carry-out at 1.6 million tonnes — well above the five-year average of 0.9 million tonnes and significantly higher than the 1.2 million tonnes carried out of the previous year.

Source: Statistics Canada, Production of Principal Field Crops, November 2025; Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Outlook for Principal Field Crops, March 2026.

Alberta’s Feed Barley Market

For Alberta feedlot country, barley pricing in 2025-26 followed a predictable seasonal arc — but at lower absolute levels than the prior year. Harvest bids in the Lethbridge area came in around $255 to $260 per tonne in September, which is consistent with the typical post-harvest trough. Prices then worked higher through fall and winter, reaching $270 to $280 per tonne delivered in the February window.

AAFC’s 2025-26 price projection for Lethbridge feed barley is $270 per tonne on average, down $26 per tonne from the 2024-25 crop year. The decline reflects the larger crop rather than softening demand. Domestic feed use is expected to recover modestly as the price signals a discount to alternative grains.

Alberta’s competitive dynamic with imported U.S. corn remains the critical pricing anchor. When barley trades at a significant premium to delivered corn costs in southern Alberta, feedlots substitute where rations allow. The feed barley market needs to price competitively against corn to hold its share of feedlot rations. U.S. corn fundamentals in early 2026 have been supportive for feed grain prices generally, with strong ethanol demand and export commitments holding the corn complex higher — a positive read-through for barley.

In Saskatchewan, central locations were reporting feed barley bids in the mid-$4 to $5 per bushel range FOB farm through the late fall and winter window. Alberta bids ran above that, as they typically do, given proximity to feedlots.

Source: Alberta Agriculture and Irrigation, Agri-News; Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Outlook for Principal Field Crops, March 2026.

The Malting Market: Quiet and Covered

The malting side of the barley market in 2025-26 has been largely inactive. With a large crop and maltsters indicating they covered their near-term needs early in the crop year, there has been little push on malt premiums. Producers holding malting-eligible varieties — AAC Synergy, CDC Copeland, AAC Connect, CDC Fraser, CDC Churchill — have found the malt channel limited, pushing much of that material into feed channels at feed prices.

AAC Synergy held its position as the most widely grown malting variety in western Canada in 2025, accounting for 35.6 percent of total malting barley area. CDC Copeland’s share declined to 13.5 percent from 17.4 percent in 2024. CDC Churchill gained ground, rising to 9.6 percent from 7.1 percent in 2024. In Alberta specifically, Sirish — registered as a malt variety but used almost entirely as feed — remained the most widely grown variety overall.

In Saskatchewan, AAC Synergy was the top variety. Manitoba’s mix leaned toward AAC Connect and AAC Synergy. Nationally, general purpose barley accounted for 48 percent of seeded barley area in 2025, with malting barley at 46.2 percent, and food barley at roughly 1 percent.

For 2026, the malting situation is unlikely to change materially until domestic maltsters begin covering the new crop. Having variety specs and a target established before that window opens is standard practice — the problem isn’t variety eligibility for most producers, it’s maltster demand timing.

Source: Canadian Grain Commission, Barley Production and Quality of Western Canadian Malting Barley, 2025.

Export Pace and Key Markets

Barley exports have been one of the more positive stories in the 2025-26 crop year. During the first five months (August through December), raw barley exports reached nearly 1.5 million tonnes — up 28 percent from the same period a year earlier and 11 percent above the five-year average for that window, according to AAFC drawing on Statistics Canada monthly trade data.

China accounted for 55 percent of total exports in that period, down from over 70 percent in recent years. The diversification reflects both active buying from other markets and the re-entry of Australian barley into China following the removal of China’s import tariff on Australian product in August 2023. Canada can no longer count on the same Chinese market share it held during the 2020-2023 window, when Australia’s access was blocked.

The most significant new-market development in 2025-26 was Saudi Arabia’s return as a buyer of Canadian feed barley — the first purchases since 2016-17. Saudi barley imports from Canada ran to an estimated 251,000 tonnes between September and November 2025. Saudi Arabia’s entry into the Canadian market is generally read by traders as a signal that Canadian pricing has reached a competitive floor — the Saudis typically buy from the cheapest available origin globally. That they were buying here last fall was a meaningful signal for floor pricing.

Japan remains a consistent export destination for both grain and malted barley. The U.S. is the primary market for malt exports, followed by Japan, Mexico, and South Korea.

For the full 2025-26 crop year, AAFC projects total exports to remain above the five-year average, supported by the large domestic supply and globally competitive pricing. However, the pace is expected to moderate through the second half of the crop year as Australian competition intensifies and Chinese inventories build.

Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Outlook for Principal Field Crops, March 2026; Statistics Canada, monthly trade data.

Global Barley Context

Canada isn’t the only origin carrying a large barley supply in 2025-26. According to USDA data cited by AAFC, global barley production for 2025-26 reached approximately 155 million tonnes — up notably year over year and above the five-year average. Key exporting origins including the European Union, Russia, Australia, and Canada all posted stronger crops. Ukraine harvested one of its smallest crops on record, which offset some of that volume.

Global ending stocks are projected at over 20 million tonnes, a substantial increase compared to the previous season. The result is a well-supplied world market with prices under pressure across multiple origins. Canada’s pricing remains competitive on an FOB Vancouver basis, but Australian and European values are keeping the ceiling tight for export business into China.

Feed demand globally is expected to grow — stronger livestock industries in importing countries and a discount to corn in some markets are drawing barley volumes. But the scale of this year’s global crop means buyers are not in a rush and are comfortable working from existing inventories.

Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Outlook for Principal Field Crops, March 2026, citing USDA supply and demand data.

2026 Seeding Intentions

Statistics Canada’s March 2026 seeding intentions report showed producers planning to increase barley area nationally — a reversal of the area contraction that has been underway for several years. Saskatchewan producers intend to seed 2.4 million acres, up 7.9 percent from 2025. Alberta intends to add area as well, up 5.2 percent to 3.5 million acres. Manitoba is the exception, with a slight pullback.

The increase in Saskatchewan area is particularly notable. Saskatchewan barley acres in 2025 sat at 2.3 million — the area rebuild signals producers see rotation value in barley and, in some cases, are responding to slightly better return prospects relative to pulses, which are facing sharply lower acreage intentions due to Indian import tariffs.

If these intentions translate into actual seeded area, 2026 national barley production will depend heavily on yield. AAFC’s preliminary 2026-27 projection assumes a return to average yields from the record 2025 level, putting production at approximately 8.5 million tonnes. That would be below the 10-year average of roughly 9.4 million tonnes — a number that, if realized, would tighten the supply picture modestly and provide some price support entering the new crop year.

The key risk on the supply side is the growing season. The record 2025 yield depended on late-season rainfall that covered for dry early-summer conditions. Going into 2026, soil moisture conditions across the Prairies entering spring were generally adequate but variable. Alberta received above-average precipitation between October 2024 and March 2025. Saskatchewan’s moisture situation was more mixed.

Source: Statistics Canada, Principal Field Crop Areas, 2026 (March 5, 2026); Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Outlook for Principal Field Crops, March 2026.

Marketing Considerations for 2025-26 Remaining Crop

For producers with unpriced 2025 barley, the marketing setup from here into spring and summer favors measured selling over holding for a significant rally. Carry-out stocks are elevated, global supply is ample, and malting demand is quiet. The seasonal pattern does support modest price improvement through road ban season and into the seeding window — farmers slow their selling, which tightens nearby delivery availability.

The corn market’s strength in early 2026 is a supportive factor. If U.S. corn prices continue to hold — driven by strong ethanol demand and a potential 2026 crop reduction — that provides a floor for barley in the southern Alberta feedlot corridor. The ceiling, however, is defined by Australian competition for Chinese buyers and the size of the global barley crop.

Producers holding malting-eligible barley who have not found a malt home should be realistic about eventual disposition. With maltsters covered and malt premiums limited, the window to move at malt prices is narrow. In a high-supply year, feed bids are often the practical outcome for malt-variety barley that doesn’t move on a malt program early.

For positioning on new crop, the decision comes back to acreage intentions and moisture. If 2026 ends up producing a below-average crop on the expanded acreage — which AAFC’s return-to-average-yield assumption implies — prices will need to move higher to clear supply. That scenario would favor producers who carry inventory into the new crop year rather than moving everything before July 31.

The 2026-27 projected Lethbridge price from AAFC sits at $270 per tonne, unchanged year over year. That number assumes average yields and the corn price relationship holding roughly steady. A weather-driven crop reduction in western Canada or the U.S. Midwest would move that figure higher; a second consecutive large Canadian crop would put pressure on it.

Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Outlook for Principal Field Crops, March 2026.

What to Watch

The barley market through the balance of 2025-26 and into 2026-27 will be shaped primarily by four variables: spring soil moisture across the Prairie barley belt, U.S. corn production estimates, Chinese import pace, and whether maltsters return to the market for new crop coverage. None of those are settled heading into April.

Spring soil moisture reports from Alberta Agriculture and Irrigation and the Saskatchewan Ministry of Agriculture, released weekly during the growing season, are the most actionable inputs for barley producers making marketing decisions. A second consecutive year of dry early-season conditions would change the crop production outlook quickly.

The export data published weekly by the Canadian Grain Commission tracks barley movement through licensed elevators and provides an ongoing read on whether the export pace is ahead of or behind projections. If the first-half export strength carries through, carry-out stocks could come in below AAFC’s 1.6 million tonne projection — a modest positive for price.

For producers on the malting side, watching when maltsters begin covering new crop needs is the relevant trigger. In years with large crops, that coverage tends to happen later in the season. In tighter supply years, they move earlier. Current conditions point to a later-than-usual coverage window.

TAGS: barley, Prairie barley, feed barley, malting barley, barley marketing, crop production, barley exports, Alberta agriculture, Saskatchewan agriculture, 2025-26 crop year

This report was developed with the assistance of artificial intelligence and is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, agronomic, or legal advice and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for farm planning, risk management, or operational decision-making. Western Farm Report assumes no liability for actions taken based on the contents of this report. Readers are encouraged to verify data with primary sources and consult qualified professional advisors before making financial or operational commitments.