Prairie Agroclimate Conditions — April 2026

PRAIRIE AGROCLIMATE CONDITIONS: OCTOBER 2025

Drought continues to dominate conditions across the Prairie provinces, with significant implications for soil moisture and livestock management heading into winter. As of September 30, extreme drought expanded along the Alberta-Saskatchewan border, while conditions remain variable across all three provinces.

In Alberta, the majority of the province received less than 40% of normal September precipitation, intensifying drought stress. Harvest reached 96% completion by October 7, with yields expected to exceed the five-year average outside the Peace Region. However, soil moisture remains critically low, with only 19% of the province rated as having good to excellent subsurface moisture compared to the five-year average of 37%. The northeast region around Smoky Lake, Vermilion, and Camrose has been particularly hard hit, with 39% of fall-seeded crops rated poor and 58% fair. Pasture conditions have deteriorated significantly, with only 15% rated good to excellent. Many producers have begun moving cattle off pasture and supplementing feed.

Saskatchewan completed 93% of harvest by October 6, with most crop yields near or above average despite warm, dry weather. Topsoil moisture has declined substantially across the province, with 83% of cropland and 73% of hay land rated as adequate to short. Pasture conditions are more concerning, with 71% falling into the short to very short category. Late-season rains have helped some eastern and southeastern regions, prompting some producers to remove cattle early to allow pasture recovery.

Manitoba benefited from late September and early October rains, improving overall conditions. Harvest was approximately 86% complete by October 6, with average to above average yields for most crops. However, conditions remain highly variable, with southwestern, central, and eastern regions showing adequate to excessive moisture, while the Interlake and eastern portions remain dry. Pasture conditions are mostly good, though drier areas face feed shortages and water-hauling requirements.

October forecasts predict above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation across eastern Saskatchewan and Manitoba, potentially further depleting soil moisture as producers complete harvest and fall fieldwork.

Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada | Read the full report 

This report was developed with the assistance of artificial intelligence and is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, agronomic, or legal advice and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for farm planning, risk management, or operational decision-making. Western Farm Report assumes no liability for actions taken based on the contents of this report. Readers are encouraged to verify data with primary sources and consult qualified professional advisors before making financial or operational commitments.