Spring Moisture Returns to Most of the Prairies — But Wet Conditions and Active Migration Elevate HPAI Introduction Risk for Poultry Operations

Current Conditions (Near-Term Horizon)

The Canadian Drought Monitor’s March 31, 2026 assessment — the most recent published — shows a Prairie moisture picture that has improved substantially from 2025’s drought-heavy baseline. The vast majority of the Prairie region is carrying soil moisture in the range of 85 to 200 percent of the 1991–2020 climate normal for this date. One sliver of Severe Drought (D2) persists along the eastern slopes of the Rocky Mountains in southern Alberta, concentrated in the watersheds feeding the Oldman and St. Mary reservoirs, where sub-normal snowpack and below-60%-of-normal precipitation have maintained structural deficits. Reservoir recharge in that zone remains a concern heading into irrigation season.

Elsewhere, the picture is materially better — but “better” carries a biosecurity implication that producers managing poultry operations need to assess now.

Across central and northern Alberta, widespread above-normal precipitation through the winter and into April has improved surface soil moisture and increased water pooling in low-lying areas. Alberta Agriculture’s most recent moisture situation update confirms many regions have seen modest improvement in recent weeks through early spring precipitation events, though subsoil reserves in much of central and southern Alberta remain 25 to 75 mm below normal at depth. A low-pressure system tracking through central and northern Saskatchewan on April 24–25 is delivering 10 to 30 mm of water-equivalent precipitation to the region, with 5 to 10 mm expected across other Prairie areas.

Saskatchewan’s regional moisture picture remains split. The Palliser Triangle — southwestern Saskatchewan and west-central areas into the Alberta border — carries the residual signature of multi-year dryness. The northeast, by contrast, held significant snowpack through late March, providing runoff and early-season moisture. Southern Manitoba improved substantially over winter, with normal to above-normal precipitation reducing Moderate Drought (D1) in most areas.

At the end of March 2026, the Canadian Drought Monitor reported that 39% of the Prairie Region was still classified as Abnormally Dry (D0) or in Moderate (D1) to Severe (D2) Drought — including 21% in active drought categories. That represents a meaningful improvement from the summer and fall 2025 peak, but confirms that the structural deficit across southern Alberta and the Palliser Triangle has not been erased by winter precipitation alone.

Source: Canadian Drought Monitor, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, March 31, 2026 assessment. Alberta Agriculture and Irrigation, Agricultural Moisture Situation Update, April 2026.

Climate Pattern Context (Strategic Horizon)

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issued its Final La Niña Advisory on April 9, 2026. La Niña conditions have ended. The ENSO Alert System has shifted to El Niño Watch.

ENSO-neutral conditions are now present, with the Niño-3.4 index reaching +0.5°C for the week centred April 15 — sitting at the technical El Niño threshold. NOAA CPC assigns an 80% probability of ENSO-neutral persisting through April–June 2026, with El Niño emergence likely during May–July 2026 (61% probability) and persistence through at least the end of 2026.

This is a significant transition for the Prairie climate outlook.

La Niña’s two-year run — including the 2024/25 and 2025/26 phases — imposed elevated drought probability on the southern Prairies and the Palliser Triangle. That signal was realized: 2025 was among the driest years on record in parts of southern Alberta and southwestern Saskatchewan, with sub-surface moisture deficits that have carried into spring 2026. ENSO transition to neutral, and the forward probability of El Niño, reduces the strategic drought risk signal for the balance of the 2026 growing season. El Niño events are historically associated with warmer and sometimes drier winter conditions on the Prairies, but the growing season response is more variable. The 2015/16 El Niño event did not produce severe Prairie drought; the 2002/03 El Niño did not either. The key historical precedent for the current situation — La Niña exiting with lingering structural soil moisture deficits — is 2011/12, where sub-surface drought persisted well into the growing season despite ENSO transitioning to neutral and then El Niño.

The strategic takeaway: the ENSO transition reduces the forward drought risk probability for summer 2026, but it does not eliminate the structural deficits already embedded in the soil profile across southern Alberta and the Palliser Triangle. Above-normal spring and early summer precipitation remains necessary to fully recharge those regions. The probability of that precipitation has improved with the La Niña exit, but is not assured.

For spring 2026 specifically, the ENSO transition combined with the improved surface moisture baseline points toward a wetter spring across most of the Prairies than the past two years — and that wetter signal has direct implications for waterfowl habitat and HPAI introduction risk.

Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, April 9, 2026. NOAA CPC, ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions, April 2026.

Production and Planning Implications

The moisture-HPAI intersection

The same conditions that make spring 2026 agronomically encouraging for much of the Prairies — increased soil moisture, snow-melt runoff, standing water in low-lying areas and sloughs — create the ecological conditions that elevate HPAI introduction risk for commercial poultry operations.

Migratory waterfowl congregate in precisely the habitat that a wetter-than-recent-average spring produces: standing water in field depressions, slough complexes, drainage ditches, and areas adjacent to grain storage and water bodies. The Central Flyway runs directly over Alberta’s main commercial poultry production counties — Leduc, Lacombe, Ponoka, and Wetaskiwin — and over Saskatchewan’s Palliser-adjacent production zones. Spring migration is now underway.

The HPAI situation on the Prairies as of late April 2026:

The Canadian Food Inspection Agency confirmed three commercial and non-commercial HPAI premises in Saskatchewan in the week of April 14–15: Rural Municipality of Monet No. 257, RM of Stonehenge No. 73, and RM of Buffalo No. 409. CFIA has established primary control zones around each affected site. These detections followed a nearly two-month lull in commercial cases nationally, and mark Saskatchewan’s first commercial detection since early December 2025.

No commercial cases have been confirmed in Alberta or Manitoba in 2026 to date. Alberta Agriculture and Irrigation confirms the spring migration window is the period of highest introduction risk, consistent with historical pattern: in 2025, Alberta recorded 26 confirmed flock cases, with one in May directly linked to spring migration and the remainder concentrated in the fall migration window (September to December). Since the current HPAI outbreak cycle began in 2022, more than 2.5 million birds in Alberta — and over 17 million across Canada — have been lost to avian influenza.

The weather-biosecurity connection producers need to act on now:

Standing water and drainage. A wetter spring means more water accumulation in farm-adjacent low spots, dugouts, and drainage channels. Waterfowl will congregate wherever standing water and residual grain are available. Producers should assess drainage around barn sites, grain storage, and feed storage areas now, before active migration reaches peak density in May. Eliminating or reducing accessible water near production facilities is the primary environmental control available.

Access roads and trafficability. The current low-pressure system tracking through central Saskatchewan is dropping significant precipitation. Saturated access roads increase the risk of contaminated footwear and equipment movement between wild bird habitat and barn entrances. Controlled access points, boot wash stations, and equipment decontamination protocols are most effective when established before traffic volumes increase during seeding.

Barn ventilation timing. As spring temperatures rise, producers begin opening ventilation systems earlier and more frequently. Open ventilation creates pathways for virus-laden aerosols or particulate from wild bird activity near barn perimeters. The timing of ventilation opening relative to migration peak should be assessed against current wild bird activity levels on or adjacent to the operation.

Feed and water security. Wild bird access to feed storage, grain handling areas, and open water sources used by domestic birds is the most direct introduction pathway. Physical exclusion — netting, covered storage, restricted-access feed handling areas — should be in place and inspected before migration peak.

Alberta’s provincial biosecurity framework requires enhanced vigilance during spring and fall migration periods, and CFIA’s control zone establishment around the Saskatchewan premises serves as the current jurisdictional marker that active spread is occurring in the region.

Grain and dryland production implications

The improved moisture baseline across most of the Prairies supports a better seeding setup than 2024 or 2025 for central and northern regions. The AAFC drought outlook, issued earlier this spring, noted that spring soil moisture should be adequate for most of the Prairie region following snowmelt — with the important caveat that full recovery of sub-surface and groundwater resources in southern areas requires above-normal precipitation through the growing season.

The ongoing dry subsoil conditions in southern Alberta and the Palliser Triangle (parts of which are still carrying D1 to D2 drought designations as of the March 31 CDM) mean producers in those areas are entering seeding with compressed resilience. A dry May in the Palliser Triangle would rapidly translate surface moisture improvements into surface-only conditions, leaving established crops vulnerable to early-season moisture stress. The El Niño forward signal is mildly positive for that risk, but the spring predictability barrier — the period from April to June when ENSO forecast accuracy is lowest — means that signal carries less weight than at other times of year.

Source: Canadian Food Inspection Agency, HPAI premises status, April 2026. Alberta.ca, H5N1 Avian Influenza in Alberta, updated 2026. Government of Saskatchewan, Avian Influenza in Wild Birds, 2026. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Canadian Drought Outlook, January 2026.

What to Watch

Canadian Drought Monitor — April 2026 assessment. AAFC publishes the monthly CDM update by approximately the 10th of the following month. The April 30 assessment will be the first to capture the full effect of spring melt and April precipitation events on Prairie soil moisture. Material improvement in southern Alberta’s D2 zone, or conversely, a drying of surface conditions in the Palliser Triangle, will be the key signal. Watch: agriculture.canada.ca/en/agricultural-production/weather/canadian-drought-monitor

CFIA HPAI premises status — ongoing. CFIA updates confirmed premises weekly during active outbreak periods. The week of April 14–15 Saskatchewan detections should be treated as the leading edge of the spring migration risk window. Additional premises confirmations in Alberta or Saskatchewan in the coming 3–4 weeks would signal elevated spread. Watch: inspection.canada.ca — avian influenza latest situation

NOAA CPC ENSO advisory — May 2026. The May advisory (expected second Thursday of May) will be the first issued under active El Niño Watch conditions. If Niño-3.4 SST anomalies have crossed and held above +0.5°C, NOAA may issue a formal El Niño Advisory — a meaningful shift in the Prairie strategic outlook that would warrant a standalone Agroclimate post. Watch: cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Alberta Agriculture and Irrigation — Agricultural Moisture Situation Update. Published on an as-needed basis during the growing season, typically biweekly to weekly from May onward. The first post-seeding update will capture early-season germination moisture conditions across the province. Watch: open.alberta.ca/publications/moisture-situation-update

Tags: HPAI, avian influenza, spring migration, Canadian Drought Monitor, ENSO neutral, El Niño Watch, Prairie soil moisture, Alberta poultry, Saskatchewan drought, biosecurity

This post was produced with AI assistance. All sources are attributed and linked. Western Farm Report editorial standards apply.