Prairie Chicken in 2026: Strong Demand, HPAI Pressure, CUSMA Risk
Chicken has been Canada’s most consumed animal protein for years, and the demand picture heading into 2026 is stronger than usual. High beef prices have pushed consumers toward chicken, chick placements hit record levels in the second half of 2025, and Alberta showed the fastest production growth of any province in 2024. Prairie chicken producers are operating in a sector with genuine tailwinds — but those tailwinds are running into a persistent disease threat, a tightening import cap, and a trade renegotiation that could reshape market access conditions for the next decade.
The supply management system governing chicken production insulates Prairie producers from the market volatility that rattles the open sectors, but it does not insulate them from biosecurity events, input cost shifts, or the political outcomes of CUSMA negotiations. All three of those variables are live issues in 2026.
Production and Demand: The Numbers
According to Statistics Canada and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Canadian chicken farms generated approximately $3.9 billion in farm cash receipts in 2024. Total Canadian chicken production reached approximately 1.4 billion kilograms in 2024, with the industry contributing to a combined poultry and egg sector valued at $6.8 billion including exports. Canada employed over 112,000 people across farming, processing, transportation, and retail tied to the chicken supply chain, according to AAFC’s industry profile.
Domestic demand continues to grow. Canadians consumed an average of 34.8 kilograms of chicken per person in 2024, making it by a significant margin the most consumed animal protein in the country. The demand picture for 2026 is being shaped by a specific structural shift: historically, ground beef was approximately one dollar per pound cheaper than chicken breast. That price relationship reversed around 2024 as cattle supplies tightened and beef prices rose. The narrowing — and in some cases inversion — of that price gap has pushed more consumers toward chicken, accelerating demand growth that was already underway from long-running demographic trends favouring poultry.
Retail prices for fresh or frozen chicken rose 6.7% in the final three months of 2025 compared with average increases of less than 1% earlier in the year — a signal that demand was outrunning the supply growth built into quota allocations. Frozen chicken stocks, adjusted for population, were near per-capita lows last seen in 2020 as 2025 closed out, leaving limited buffer capacity in the system heading into 2026.
Chick placements — the leading indicator of broiler production roughly six weeks ahead — reached record highs in the second half of 2025. National placements surpassed 75 million chicks in four separate months, with placements across the second half of 2025 running 5.6% above the same period in 2024, according to AAFC hatching egg and chick data. That placement momentum, if it translated into production uninterrupted by disease, would support solid broiler output through early 2026.
The Prairie Share: Alberta at the Front
Alberta showed the fastest chicken production growth of any province in 2024, at 2.1%, according to AAFC’s national poultry industry profile. That growth reflects both strong provincial demand and the operational scale of Alberta’s chicken sector, which is among the largest in western Canada.
The Alberta chicken industry operates under supply management administered by Alberta Chicken Producers, which sets minimum live prices every eight weeks following consultation with processors. Production quota is allocated to individual producers based on their holdings, with Chicken Farmers of Canada setting the national allocation every eight weeks based on provincial requests and downstream industry input. Alberta producers receive their provincial share of that national allocation and produce accordingly within their quota entitlement.
According to Alberta Chicken Producers, the production cycle runs on an eight-week basis. A 40-gram chick grows to approximately 2.35 kilograms in 35 to 38 days, with a feed conversion rate of roughly 1.56 to 1.57 kilograms of feed per kilogram of meat. Most broilers are marketed at 36 to 39 days, leaving the remainder of the eight-week cycle for cleanout, disinfection, and barn preparation. At full quota utilization, a producer generates revenue over approximately 6.5 cycles per year. The regularity of that cycle — and the administered pricing that governs it — provides a planning stability that open-market livestock sectors do not have.
Saskatchewan and Manitoba operate their own provincial marketing boards — Saskatchewan Chicken Industry Development Fund and Manitoba Chicken Producers respectively — each receiving their provincial share of the national allocation from Chicken Farmers of Canada. The Prairie provinces combined represent a meaningful share of western Canadian production, though Quebec and Ontario remain the dominant producing provinces nationally, accounting for roughly 25% and 35% of national output respectively.
HPAI: The Recurring Constraint
Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) has been an active threat to Canadian commercial poultry since the current outbreak cycle began in December 2021. Canada lost 82 commercial poultry flocks to HPAI in 2025, according to CFIA data. Of those, 31 were in British Columbia, 16 in Alberta, 15 in Ontario, 7 each in Manitoba and Quebec, and 6 in Saskatchewan. The Prairie provinces — Alberta, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan — collectively accounted for 29 confirmed commercial flock losses in 2025, making the region the second-hardest hit area in the country behind British Columbia.
The outbreak pattern follows the migratory flyways of wild waterfowl. Spring and fall migration seasons represent the highest-risk windows for domestic flock exposure, as HPAI-infected wild birds concentrate near water sources, drainage areas, and agricultural land during those periods. Alberta Agriculture has documented HPAI in wild waterfowl, raptors, and scavenging mammals including skunks in southern Alberta, particularly along the Oldman and South Saskatchewan rivers. The risk to commercial operations is indirect — wild bird contact and environmental contamination — rather than bird-to-bird transmission within controlled barn environments.
The CFIA’s response protocol to confirmed HPAI detections in commercial flocks is stamping-out: the entire flock on an infected premises is humanely depopulated, the premises is disinfected, and movement restrictions are applied to surrounding Control Zones. This internationally recognized standard, as defined by the World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH), is the primary mechanism for limiting spread and preserving Canada’s ability to trade in poultry products. WOAH rules specify that HPAI in non-commercial or backyard flocks should not affect international poultry trade, though restrictions in neighbouring Control Zones still apply during active response.
The economic consequences of a confirmed commercial flock HPAI detection are immediate and significant: complete depopulation, an extended barn downtime for decontamination, and loss of the production cycle revenue for that period. Compensation is available through CFIA’s indemnification program for depopulated birds, but it does not fully recover the economic impact of lost production during the cleanout and restricted movement period. For Prairie producers, the spring migration season — which overlaps with April and May seeding operations across the same landscape — represents the highest annual biosecurity risk period.
The CFIA advises that biosecurity is the first and most effective line of defence. For commercial operators this means: restricting access to barn areas, maintaining written biosecurity protocols, ensuring all personnel follow entry procedures including footwear and clothing changes, keeping barn environments free of wild bird attractants, securing feed storage, and reporting any unusual flock mortality within 24 hours. Alberta Agriculture and the CFIA both maintain updated HPAI surveillance and response information for producers at inspection.canada.ca.
Imports: At the Cap
Chicken imports account for approximately 11% of total domestic chicken supply in Canada. That share has been relatively stable for several years, but 2025 marked a notable shift in import dynamics: fill rates — the volume of imports as a proportion of available tariff-rate quota — under both the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and CUSMA reached nearly 100% in 2025. That near-full utilization of import quotas is expected to persist through 2026, according to AAFC’s import regime data.
What full fill rates mean in practical terms: the import channel that partially buffers domestic supply shortfalls is now essentially at capacity. When domestic production runs short — whether due to HPAI depopulations, quota adjustments, or unexpected demand spikes — there is limited additional import room available to compensate. Supplementary import permits can be issued for documented shortages, but the baseline trade agreement quotas are effectively exhausted. This tightens the supply-demand balance and creates upward price pressure when domestic production falls short of quota targets.
Under CUSMA, chicken TRQ volumes increased from 47,000 tonnes to 57,000 tonnes in the agreement’s sixth year and are subject to 1% annual incremental increases for the following decade. Chile’s accession to the CPTPP has added volume from that country to Canada’s import mix over the past two years. These incremental TRQ expansions are built into the current trade framework, but any renegotiation of CUSMA that significantly alters the import volume structure would directly affect the calibration of domestic quota allocations.
CUSMA: The Structural Risk
The formal review of CUSMA is scheduled to begin July 1, 2026. For Prairie chicken producers, this renegotiation carries specific implications related to import TRQ volumes, the potential for expanded market access concessions, and the durability of the supply management framework that governs their production and pricing.
The U.S. poultry industry and trade officials have flagged Canadian supply management as a structural irritant in prior CUSMA negotiations and in public submissions ahead of the 2026 review. The specific friction points for chicken mirror those for dairy: TRQ administration practices, fill rate management, and allegations that Canada channels import quotas to domestic processors in ways that limit effective U.S. access. Parliament passed Bill C-202 in June 2025, which prohibits Canadian trade negotiators from offering concessions on supply-managed sectors in future trade negotiations. Agriculture Minister Heath MacDonald has confirmed supply management is not on the table.
The legislative protection is meaningful but not unconditional. Trade negotiations ultimately involve tradeoffs across sectors, and if the U.S. makes supply management concessions a precondition for CUSMA renewal, Ottawa faces a choice between holding firm and accepting broader trade disruption or offering targeted adjustments — likely in TRQ administration rather than the tariff wall itself — to close a deal. For chicken producers, the most realistic adverse outcome in the 2026 review is not dismantlement but incremental erosion: higher fill rate requirements, revised TRQ allocation mechanisms giving U.S. exporters more direct access, or modest quota volume increases that slow the growth of domestic production allowances by directing a portion of demand growth to imported product.
The eight-week allocation cycle through Chicken Farmers of Canada is the mechanism through which any change in import volume policy would be felt at the farm level. When import fill rates are high and domestic quota is set to match residual demand, an upward shift in import allowances translates directly to a downward pressure on domestic quota utilization. Producers who own quota see their effective production volume constrained. Quota values would adjust accordingly if the market concluded that supply management protection had been meaningfully weakened.
Feed Costs: A Relative Advantage
Prairie chicken producers operate with a structural feed cost advantage relative to eastern Canadian operations in certain grain inputs. The Prairie region produces barley, feed wheat, and field peas that are used in poultry rations, and proximity to grain production reduces transportation costs relative to importing feed grain from distance. Feed costs are the primary variable input in broiler production, representing a large share of the cost of production underpinning the administered live price.
The 2025-26 feed grain environment has been relatively favourable for broiler producers. Soybeans, barley, and feed wheat were all below their four-year average prices through much of 2025, according to data presented in Chicken Farmers of Canada’s November 2025 allocation decision materials. Corn moved above 2024 levels late in the year but remained below the three prior years. The combination of stable feed costs and administered live prices supported solid production economics for Prairie broiler producers through 2025, and the USDA FAS Ottawa forecast projects modest continuation of that environment into 2026.
The main feed cost risk for 2026 is barley. Ending stocks for the 2024-25 barley crop year fell to approximately 500,000 tonnes nationally against a 10-year average of roughly 1.1 million tonnes. [Note: verify current carryout and price levels with AAFC’s most recent supply and disposition estimates.] A production shortfall in the 2026 Prairie barley crop — driven by drought, frost, or acreage competition with more profitable crops — would push feed costs higher and compress the margin between the cost of production formula and actual input costs. That compression would feed into administered price adjustment requests at the next cycle review.
Biosecurity: The Practical Priority
For Prairie chicken producers, the highest-priority operational task in 2026 is maintaining the biosecurity standards that keep HPAI out of commercial barns during the spring and fall migration windows. The consequences of a confirmed detection — full flock depopulation, extended cleanout, quota cycle disruption, and potential Control Zone restrictions affecting neighbouring operations — make prevention the only viable strategy. There is no treatment for HPAI in commercial flocks.
The CFIA’s biosecurity guidance for commercial poultry operations focuses on four primary exposure pathways: wild bird contact with barn environments, contaminated vehicles and equipment, personnel movement between infected and uninfected premises, and contaminated feed or water sources. In Prairie settings, where poultry barns often exist within landscapes also occupied by migratory waterfowl and where operators manage multiple agricultural activities simultaneously, the discipline required to maintain strict biosecurity during seeding and other peak farm activity periods requires deliberate planning.
Written biosecurity plans, regular staff training, documented visitor logs, vehicle sanitation protocols, and clear procedures for reporting unusual flock mortality are the operational baseline. Alberta Agriculture and the CFIA both maintain producer resources and hotlines for HPAI concerns. If unusual mortality or clinical signs consistent with HPAI are observed — sudden death, severe respiratory distress, neurological signs, or dramatic drops in egg production — producers are legally required to notify the CFIA within 24 hours. Early reporting is the mechanism that contains outbreaks before they expand across multiple premises.
Key Factors for 2026
HPAI status through spring migration. The highest-risk period for Prairie commercial flocks runs from roughly late March through May as migratory waterfowl move north through the Prairies. The concentration of infected wild birds in southern Alberta during winter 2025-26, particularly along river corridors, signals elevated background pressure heading into spring. Monitoring CFIA’s provincial status updates through the spring migration window is the most direct way to track whether commercial flock risk is escalating.
CUSMA review signals. The formal review begins July 1, 2026. Early signals from both Canadian and U.S. trade officials in the weeks before that date will indicate whether the review is likely to be contentious on supply management specifically or whether the focus will shift to other sectors. For chicken producers, TRQ administration and fill rate requirements are the specific provisions to monitor, as changes there translate most directly to domestic quota volume and producer allocation.
Quota allocation trends at Chicken Farmers of Canada. The eight-week allocation cycle is the most direct indicator of how the national system is calibrating supply against demand. When all provinces are requesting above-base growth — as they were in late 2025 — and those requests are being approved, it signals that the system is responding to real demand. When requests are trimmed or quota utilization percentages are reduced, it signals excess supply or processing constraints. Watching allocation decisions through Chicken Farmers of Canada and provincial boards provides the earliest read on how 2026 production is being managed.
Feed grain supply. The 2026 barley and feed wheat crop on the Prairies will determine the input cost environment for broiler production through the 2026-27 crop year. Dry spring conditions or acreage shifts away from feed grains would push costs up and put pressure on the cost-of-production formula used to set live prices at the farm gate.
Prairie chicken production is entering 2026 from a position of genuine demand strength. Record chick placements, elevated consumer demand driven partly by beef price displacement, and a sector-wide commitment to production growth all point toward a strong year if biosecurity holds. The vulnerabilities are real — HPAI along the migratory flyways, a tight import buffer, and a trade review whose outcomes are genuinely uncertain — but they are manageable with operational discipline and attention to the policy signals coming out of Ottawa and Washington through the spring and summer.
Sources: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Chicken and Poultry sector market information. Statistics Canada, Farm Cash Receipts 2024 and Poultry and Egg Statistics. AAFC, National poultry industry profile. Alberta Agriculture and Irrigation, HPAI in Alberta — commercial and wild bird surveillance. Canadian Food Inspection Agency, Status of ongoing HPAI response by province. CFIA, Fact checking HPAI, August 2025. Alberta Chicken Producers, Chicken Industry overview. Government of Canada, Supply Management legislation (Bill C-202), June 2025. USDA Foreign Agricultural Service Ottawa, Poultry and Products Annual. Chicken Farmers of Canada, Allocation A-200 decision letter, November 2025.
TAGS: chicken, broiler production, Prairie poultry, supply management, HPAI, avian influenza, CUSMA, chicken quota, Alberta chicken, feed grain
This report was developed with the assistance of artificial intelligence and is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, agronomic, or legal advice and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for farm planning, risk management, or operational decision-making. Western Farm Report assumes no liability for actions taken based on the contents of this report. Readers are encouraged to verify data with primary sources and consult qualified professional advisors before making financial or operational commitments.