Tariff Watch April 18th 2026

The Section 122 global tariff surcharge expires on July 24, 2026 — 97 days from today. That date is now the dominant fixed coordinate in the Canada-US tariff landscape, and its interaction with two converging timelines — the CUSMA Article 34.7 joint review deadline of July 1 and the USTR’s Section 301 investigations aimed at concluding before July 24 — creates the most consequential 90-day trade policy window Prairie agriculture has faced since the 2018-2019 NAFTA renegotiation. The US Supreme Court’s February 20, 2026 decision in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump invalidated IEEPA as a tariff authority, forcing the administration to rebuild its tariff architecture on Section 122 (temporary, CUSMA-exempt) and Section 301 (permanent, country-specific). For CUSMA-compliant Prairie grain, oilseed, and pulse exports to the US, the immediate position is stable: the CUSMA exemption from Section 122 applies cleanly, and agricultural commodities moving under CUSMA origin certification are not subject to the current 15% surcharge. The operative risks are forward-looking, not current.