Prairie Field Peas: Record Crop, Broken Markets, and a Trade Lifeline

Canada harvested a record-setting dry pea crop in 2025, pushing output to 3.93 million tonnes — a 31.6 per cent jump over 2024 and well above any previous benchmark. The headline number would ordinarily be cause for optimism. Instead, Prairie pea growers spent most of the crop year managing a market in freefall, caught between a Chinese 100 per cent tariff that shut off their largest traditional buyer almost overnight and an Indian duty-free window that expired before the oversupply could clear. By spring 2026, a preliminary Canada-China trade agreement had removed the pea tariff, but the sector is still working through record carry-out stocks and structurally lower prices that will shape acres and contracts heading into 2026-27.

Understanding where this crop stands — how it was grown, where it went, what derailed it, and where the market is now — is essential for any producer making rotation and marketing decisions for the coming year.

Production and Area: Alberta Leads, Saskatchewan Holds

Statistics Canada’s final 2025 production figure of 3.93 million tonnes was built on two drivers: a 21.6 per cent improvement in yield and an 8.1 per cent expansion in harvested area compared to 2024. Nationally, seeded dry pea area reached 3.5 million acres in 2025, up 9.1 per cent from the previous year. Alberta’s pea acres surged 20.5 per cent to 1.5 million acres, accounting for 47.2 per cent of Prairie production — a notable shift from 2024, when Saskatchewan led at 51.3 per cent. Saskatchewan seeded 1.8 million acres, a 2.2 per cent increase, contributing 45.8 per cent of the crop. Manitoba made up the remaining 6.9 per cent. (Statistics Canada, Table 32-10-0359-01; Statistics Canada, The Daily, December 2025)

The 2024 crop that preceded this record was itself a recovery year — output reached 3.0 million tonnes, 14.9 per cent higher than 2023 on a 6.7 per cent increase in area. But even that number sat 18.3 per cent below the 10-year average of 3.7 million tonnes. The 2025 crop effectively erased that deficit and created a new supply overhang the market is still absorbing.

Growing conditions across the Prairies in 2025 were uneven early but improved materially late in the season. In Alberta, seeding ran from early May into early June, with warm conditions advancing growth but cool temperatures delaying maturity in northern areas and the Peace region. Alberta’s harvest ran from early August through mid-September under generally favourable conditions. In Saskatchewan, seeding started in late April and was complete by mid-June, with an early dry stretch giving way to timely rains that supported late-season development. Manitoba saw mixed early conditions but adequate in-season precipitation in many areas. (Canadian Grain Commission, Harvest Quality Report, 2025)

Quality: Acceptable but Below Recent Averages

The Canadian Grain Commission’s Harvest Sample Program collected 363 pea samples from across western Canada in 2025 — 272 yellow and 91 green. Yellow pea protein averaged 22.4 per cent on a dry matter basis, ranging from 18.2 to 27.8 per cent. Green peas came in at a mean of 23.4 per cent, with a range of 20.6 to 26.0 per cent. Both figures were lower than the respective 2024 values and below the 10-year mean of 23.4 per cent across both types. (Canadian Grain Commission, Quality of Western Canadian Peas, 2025)

For No. 1 yellow peas, 100-seed weight averaged 23.4 grams — higher than 2024 — while water absorption was lower and cooking time dropped to 16.5 minutes. No. 2 yellows cooked in 18.6 minutes. These are commercially workable numbers for food processors and export customers who grade on protein and functionality, though the lower protein average compared to recent years may affect premiums on high-spec contracts.

In 2024, yellow pea protein averaged 24.6 per cent for No. 1 and 25.2 per cent for No. 2 — both above 2023 levels — giving 2024 peas a quality advantage that supported early export momentum before the tariff disruptions hit. The 2025 crop does not have that same quality cushion.

The Trade Collapse: China’s 100 Per Cent Tariff

China imposed a 100 per cent tariff on Canadian dry peas effective March 20, 2025. The action was a retaliatory measure following Canada’s October 2024 decision to impose 100 per cent duties on Chinese-made electric vehicles and 25 per cent tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum. For Prairie pea growers, the timing was brutal — seed was in the ground or going in, and the sector’s largest long-term buyer had effectively closed its border to Canadian product. (Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, March 22, 2025 news release)

China had been Canada’s dominant pea customer from 2018 through 2023, absorbing approximately 1.5 million tonnes per year in average years. In 2024, exports to China still totalled around 500,000 tonnes. When the tariff hit, Chinese pea imports from Canadian licensed facilities dropped to 70,400 tonnes in the 2025-26 crop year — less than eight per cent of the nearly 892,000 tonnes Canada had shipped to all destinations by late 2025. Canadian pea exports to China for August through October 2025 totalled just 82,000 tonnes, compared to 297,000 tonnes during the same window in 2024.

Yellow pea prices on Prairie farms fell as much as 43 per cent from early March 2025 levels during the 10-month period when the Chinese market was effectively shut. The price swings were severe: yellows topped $11.40 per bushel at their peak and dropped to $5.94 at the low. By late December 2025, yellow peas were trading at $6.50 to $7.38 per bushel delivered. (Statistics Canada; Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, December 2025 Outlook)

India: Duty-Free Windows and a November Shutdown

India had provided a partial offset to China’s exit. After reimposing tariffs in late 2017 and holding them in place through 2023, India opened its borders to duty-free yellow pea imports in December 2023. That decision transformed Canadian pea export momentum through the first half of 2024-25. Canada shipped 602,000 tonnes to India in the August-October 2024 period alone, compared to 138 tonnes during the same window the previous year. Through the first five months of 2024-25, Canada had exported 675,000 tonnes of yellow peas to India — 55 per cent of total exports. (Saskatchewan Pulse Growers, Outlook for Canadian Peas and Lentils, 2024)

The Indian duty-free window was extended repeatedly but was never made permanent. By late October 2025, India reimposed a 30 per cent tariff on yellow peas effective November 1. The two-front tariff situation — China at 100 per cent and India at 30 per cent — covered roughly 70 per cent of Canada’s normal yellow pea export market simultaneously. India’s domestic pea crop in the rabi (winter) season was seeding at above-average pace heading into early 2026, reducing the price pressure that had previously pushed the government toward duty-free imports.

For AAFC’s 2025-26 crop year forecasts, India remained Canada’s top destination through the August-October period at 410,000 tonnes, followed by Bangladesh at 230,000 tonnes. Bangladesh had emerged as a meaningful alternative market as Indian volumes fluctuated. (Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Outlook for Principal Field Crops, January 2026)

The January 2026 Trade Agreement and What It Changes

A preliminary Canada-China trade agreement announced in January 2026 included the removal of the 100 per cent tariff on Canadian peas, effective March 1, 2026, in exchange for Canada reducing its tariff on Chinese electric vehicles from 100 per cent to 6.1 per cent with a quota of up to 49,000 units. The tariff removal on peas, canola meal, and seafood is guaranteed through the end of 2026. Canola oil and pork products were not included. (Government of Canada; RBC Economics, February 2026)

Saskatchewan Pulse Growers chair Stuart Lawrence described the tariff removal as directly tied to commercial realities in China — Chinese fractionators had been running down inventories of Canadian peas because alternatives from Russia and elsewhere were not meeting quality requirements for consistency and protein functionality. Chinese buyers had maintained their preference for Canadian peas throughout the tariff period; the commercial pull was already building when the political resolution came through.

AAFC’s March 2026 outlook raised the 2025-26 dry pea export forecast to 2.5 million tonnes for the crop year, with China and India returning as the top two markets. However, the tariff removal does not immediately resolve the carry-out stock problem. Ending stocks for 2025-26 are now estimated at 1.31 million tonnes — the highest on record and well above the 489,000 tonnes of ending stocks carried out of 2024-25. That supply overhang will continue to cap price recovery through the balance of 2026. (Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Outlook for Principal Field Crops, March 2026)

Domestic Processing: Growing But Not a Price Floor

Canada’s domestic pea processing sector has grown substantially since Roquette opened its pea protein facility near Portage la Prairie, Manitoba, in late 2020. That plant — 200,000 square feet with capacity to process 125,000 tonnes of yellow peas annually — was the largest of its kind globally at the time of opening. The facility produces pea protein isolates and concentrates for food and sports nutrition markets, along with food-grade starches and pea cream for animal feed. Manitoba Agriculture has noted that domestic processing absorbs a portion of pea production, providing some price floor, but volume through processing facilities represents a fraction of what Canada produces in a strong year.

AAFC’s domestic use forecast for dry peas in 2025-26 is approximately 400,000 tonnes, covering food, feed, seed, and industrial processing. Against a supply of more than 5.0 million tonnes (including carry-in), processing demand alone cannot clear the balance. Export volumes remain the primary price-setting mechanism for Prairie pea producers.

Agronomic Context: What Peas Bring to the Rotation

Despite market volatility, field peas remain a sound rotation crop on the right soil. Their primary agronomic value is biological nitrogen fixation. When properly inoculated with Rhizobium leguminosarum, peas can fix up to 80 per cent of their nitrogen requirement from atmospheric sources, eliminating the need for substantial pre-seeding N applications. Maximum fixation occurs when available soil nitrogen is below 55 kilograms per hectare (49 pounds per acre) — above that threshold, the plant preferentially draws on soil nitrogen and nodulation efficiency drops. Checking nodule colour mid-season remains the most reliable field diagnostic: pink or red interior indicates active fixation; green, cream, or brown means it has stopped. (Saskatchewan Ministry of Agriculture)

Peas perform best on well-drained clay loam soils in the Dark Brown and Black soil zones, though the crop’s relative drought tolerance allows it to be grown in the Brown zone with some yield risk. Optimal daytime growing temperatures run 13 to 23 degrees Celsius; sustained heat above 25 degrees during flowering triggers pod abortion. Most Prairie soils carry a suitable pH for pea production, so pH-related nodulation problems are uncommon except on specific field histories.

Target plant populations of at least 70 to 85 plants per square metre are standard. Seed size varies significantly between varieties and even between seed lots of the same variety, so calculating seeding rate from the specific seed lot’s thousand-seed weight is not optional — it directly determines actual plant populations and is the most common source of under-seeding errors in the crop. (Manitoba Agriculture; Saskatchewan Pulse Growers)

Rotation discipline is the most critical risk management tool for pea production. Aphanomyces root rot has become the dominant disease pressure limiting repeat pea acres on affected fields. On fields without confirmed Aphanomyces, a minimum four-year rotation is standard. Where Aphanomyces has been confirmed, six to 10 years between pea crops is the guideline. The University of Saskatchewan’s Aphanomyces Risk Evaluation App (AREA) calculates field-level risk based on rotation history, May-June precipitation data, and soil texture — a practical tool for making field-by-field rotation decisions.

Mycosphaerella blight, sclerotinia stem rot, and various root rot complexes are the other major disease risks. Fungicide timing in peas is tight, with most registered products most effective at the six-node to early-flower stage. Research on yield response to fungicide varies considerably by environment and disease pressure, so regional trial data from Alberta Agriculture and Irrigation, Saskatchewan Agriculture, and Manitoba Agriculture should be consulted for current efficacy information in your area.

Green Peas: A Different Market Picture

Green peas occupy a separate market from yellow peas and have not been equally affected by the India-China disruptions. Green pea export demand is distributed across a broader range of buyers, reducing the single-market dependency that has made yellow pea pricing so volatile. When global green pea supplies were running low in late 2024 and early 2025, importers were actively restocking, producing firmer prices than yellows experienced. Green peas have also historically commanded a substantial premium over yellows — the green-yellow spread averaged $208 per tonne in 2024-25. By early 2026, AAFC was projecting that premium to narrow to approximately $120 per tonne, reflecting softer green pea market conditions as global supplies recovered and buyer inventories normalized. (Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, February 2026 Outlook)

Current green pea bids in Saskatchewan are in the range of $10.00 per bushel based on maximum three per cent bleach specifications. Maple peas are indicated at $9.50 to $11.00 per bushel depending on variety, with premiums driven by market-specific spec requirements. Producers with on-farm storage and the ability to hit tighter quality specs consistently can capture meaningful premiums over elevator street bids.

The Seeding Decision for 2026

AAFC’s preliminary look at 2026-27 seeded area forecasts a 15 per cent decline in dry pea acres from 2025-26, projecting national seeded area at approximately 1.2 million hectares (roughly 2.97 million acres). That reduction reflects producer response to low returns — with carry-out stocks expected to remain burdensome through most of 2026, the market is not offering the kind of price signals that encourage acre expansion. Production for 2026-27 is forecast at 2.85 million tonnes, assuming average yields and the reduced area. (Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, February and March 2026 Outlooks)

Ending stocks for 2026-27 are currently projected to decrease from the 2025-26 record but remain elevated at approximately 850,000 to 945,000 tonnes. Export demand is expected to improve modestly as the China market reopens and Bangladesh and other secondary markets continue to grow, with exports forecast at 2.7 million tonnes for 2026-27. If those export projections hold, the market will begin to tighten heading into 2027 — but that recovery timeline depends on China following through on its commitment and India’s domestic policy remaining predictable.

For individual producers, the rotation calculus in 2026 involves weighing lower expected pea returns against the nitrogen credit value and the opportunity cost of alternative crops. Peas’ contribution to subsequent crop nitrogen availability is real — AAFC and university research across Alberta and Saskatchewan has consistently shown that diversified rotations with pulse crops achieve higher nitrogen use efficiency than cereal-oilseed rotations alone. In environments where fertilizer cost is a primary input pressure, that nitrogen credit has tangible dollar value even when pea prices are soft.

Contract opportunities for specialty classes — marrowfat peas, maple peas, certain green pea specs — remain available and tend to provide more price stability than open-market yellow peas. Producers with established buyer relationships and the agronomic track record to reliably hit visual and protein specifications should be requesting contract terms well ahead of seeding rather than planning to capture spot market bids post-harvest.

Forward Outlook

The immediate picture for Prairie pea growers has improved from the lows of mid-2025 but has not recovered to where peas are clearly competitive on a per-acre return basis against wheat or canola at current bids. The China market re-entry through March 2026 is the most significant positive development, and the pulse sector’s ability to maintain commercial relationships in China through an extended tariff period was a meaningful factor in the speed of that resolution. But the tariff removal is currently only guaranteed through the end of 2026, and the structural competitive pressure from Russian peas in both China and other markets has not gone away.

India’s tariff policy will continue to drive yellow pea market sentiment. India’s domestic winter pulse crop conditions, domestic price signals, and any further trade negotiations between Ottawa and New Delhi will determine whether Canadian yellow peas regain reliable access to that market through 2026-27. Producers waiting for India to return as a consistent duty-free buyer should plan around the possibility that it does not.

The domestic processing pathway will grow incrementally but is not positioned to absorb the volume swings that come with record production years. Prairie producers will remain predominantly export-dependent for pea price discovery. The quality story — protein content, seed size, cooking quality — matters more as Canadian peas compete with Russian supply in price-sensitive feed and fractionation markets. Hitting No. 1 specifications and maintaining variety identity through handling are practical factors that will affect what bids producers receive.

Expect pea acres in 2026 to contract, prices to recover modestly from 2025 lows as stocks gradually move through the system, and the trade environment to remain subject to policy decisions outside the sector’s control. Producers best positioned for the next two years are those who have managed rotation discipline, maintained agronomic quality, and approached contracting as a year-round activity rather than a harvest-time decision.

TAGS: Field Peas, Dry Peas, Prairie Pulse Crops, Crop Report, Pea Exports, India Tariffs, China Tariffs, Yellow Peas, Green Peas, Pulse Markets

This report was developed with the assistance of artificial intelligence and is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, agronomic, or legal advice and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for farm planning, risk management, or operational decision-making. Western Farm Report assumes no liability for actions taken based on the contents of this report. Readers are encouraged to verify data with primary sources and consult qualified professional advisors before making financial or operational commitments.