US Markets April 18th 2026

US winter wheat entered the 2026 growing season in its worst opening condition since 2022: as of April 5, USDA NASS rated only 35% of the national crop good to excellent — 13 percentage points below the same date a year ago and 7 points below what analysts had forecast. Simultaneously, US farmers are contending with nitrogen fertilizer prices that have surged 30–40% since the launch of Operation Epic Fury on February 28, when US and Israeli strikes on Iran triggered a near-complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz. These two developments are the dominant market forces shaping US commodity dynamics this week, and their downstream effects are direct and immediate for Prairie producers managing spring seeding decisions.