Asia Intelligence April 18th 2026

The Canada-China canola agreement that took effect March 1, 2026 is now in its seventh week, and Chinese crushers have been booking Canadian canola cargoes for April-to-June loading — the first systematic return of Chinese buying since the tariff disruption that began in March 2025. This is the most significant near-term demand signal in the Asia Pacific region for Prairie canola, and its execution pace over the next eight weeks will determine whether Canadian canola ending stocks tighten below current forecasts or continue to accumulate. China’s combined duty on Canadian canola seed is now 14.9% (5.9% anti-dumping plus 9% MFN); canola meal is at 0% through December 31, 2026; canola oil remains subject to 100% tariff. The partial normalization restores access for the two largest volume categories — seed and meal — while leaving canola oil effectively closed.