La Niña Ends, El Niño Emerges on the Horizon — Soil Moisture Recovery Uneven as Prairie Seeding Season Opens
April 25, 2026
Current Conditions — Near-Term Horizon
The Canadian Drought Monitor (CDM) assessment for March 31, 2026 — the most recent published assessment from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) — shows the most favourable Prairie drought picture heading into seeding since the multi-year dry cycle began in 2023.
At the end of March 2026, 39% of the Prairie Region was classified as Abnormally Dry (D0) or Moderate to Severe Drought (D1–D2), including 21% of the region’s agricultural landscape. To put that improvement in scale: at the end of December 2025, 79% of the Prairie Region was in D0 or worse drought classification, including 62% of the agricultural landscape. The three-month improvement is material and reflects repeated winter storm events that brought above-normal snowfall to much of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba through the January–March period. Canadian Drought Monitor, March 2026 Assessment
Conditions vary sharply by sub-region and must be read carefully.
Most of the Prairie Region received between 85% and 150% of normal March precipitation, with localized areas in northern Alberta and central Saskatchewan exceeding 200% of normal. This drove significant D1 and D2 drought reduction across the northern Prairies and broad improvement across southern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba.
The exception is southern Alberta, where portions of the region received less than 60% of normal precipitation during March, combined with above-normal temperatures. The result is continued drought expansion in that sub-region. A single area of Severe Drought (D2) persists along the eastern slopes of the Rocky Mountains in southern Alberta as of March 31. This is significant beyond its size: the eastern slopes are the primary recharge zone for southern Alberta’s major irrigation reservoirs, including the Oldman and St. Mary systems. AAFC’s CDM narrative specifically flagged reservoir levels in these systems as a concern heading into the irrigation season.
There are no D3 (Extreme Drought) or D4 (Exceptional Drought) designations anywhere on the Prairie agricultural landscape as of March 31, 2026 — the first time that has been the case since the 2023 drought intensification.
Subsoil moisture conditions warrant monitoring alongside the CDM surface picture. Sustained improvement at depth requires precipitation events distributed across spring, not just snowpack contribution from a single season.
Climate Pattern Context — Strategic Horizon
ENSO Status: La Niña Has Ended. El Niño Watch Now in Effect.
On April 9, 2026, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issued its Final La Niña Advisory and simultaneously activated an El Niño Watch. This is the most significant climate signal change for Prairie producers in two years. NOAA CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, April 9, 2026
The NOAA CPC synopsis as of April 9: ENSO-neutral conditions are present and are favoured through April–June 2026, with an 80% probability. El Niño is likely to emerge in May–July 2026, with a 61% probability, and persist through at least the end of 2026. Subsurface equatorial Pacific temperature anomalies have increased for five consecutive months, and westerly wind anomalies over the western Pacific are present — both supporting the transition to El Niño. The possible outcome range is wide: from ENSO-neutral through the growing season to a very strong El Niño (Niño-3.4 ≥ +2.0°C) during Northern Hemisphere winter 2026–27, with the latter carrying roughly a 1-in-4 probability.
What this means for Prairie producers.
The La Niña that contributed to elevated drought risk and the multi-season dryness across the southern Prairies from 2023–2025 is now over. ENSO-neutral conditions through the critical May–July 2026 growing window mean the dominant La Niña drought-amplifying signal is no longer operative for the 2026 season.
Under typical Prairie analogue years for ENSO-neutral conditions, growing season outcomes revert closer to climatological averages, with less of the systematic southward precipitation suppression that characterizes La Niña years. Producers should not read ENSO-neutral as a guarantee of adequate moisture — it simply removes the structural negative tilt on precipitation probability that La Niña imposes.
For the 2026–27 winter and the 2027 growing season, an emerging El Niño — if it materializes — would historically shift the Prairie climate signal toward warmer and drier winters (particularly in the south), earlier snowmelt, and reduced spring flood risk. The long-range implication for drought risk in the 2027 season depends heavily on El Niño strength, PDO phase alignment, and how the 2026 growing season itself unfolds. That analysis belongs in fall planning discussions, not seeding decisions today.
Important caveat on spring predictability: NOAA CPC explicitly notes that ENSO forecasts issued during the Northern Hemisphere spring carry lower reliability due to the annual spring predictability barrier. The 61% El Niño probability for May–July should be understood as a directional signal, not a confident forecast of timing or strength.
Historical analogue context. The transition from a moderate La Niña to ENSO-neutral in spring — analogous configurations include 2012, 2017, and 2023 — has produced mixed Prairie growing season outcomes. The 2012 analogue is instructive: ENSO-neutral through the growing season did not prevent significant summer drought on the southern Prairies when the PDO was in a negative phase. The current PDO configuration should be assessed against the next monthly NOAA PDO index update for additional context on whether the El Niño transition signal will be amplified or moderated.
Production and Planning Implications
Southern Alberta — seeding and irrigation priority.
Producers in southern Alberta face the most constrained spring on the Prairies. The persistent D2 on the eastern slopes, below-normal reservoir recharge, and subsoil moisture deficits not fully recovered by March snowfall create a compounding risk for the 2026 season. Canola establishment under limited subsoil moisture is the central agronomic concern. If the first significant rainfall event in May is not followed by continued precipitation, surface germination may proceed but crop resilience at heading will be compromised.
Seeding timing decisions in this region should be staged against early-season rainfall probability. Prioritizing fields with superior stubble coverage and finer-textured soils that retain moisture better is sound practice under the current soil moisture profile. Variety selection favouring drought-tolerant packages and early-season vigour reduces establishment risk in D1 and D2 zones.
Irrigators in the Lethbridge and Taber corridors should monitor reservoir levels actively. The Oldman and St. Mary reservoir situation will be a material factor in irrigation water allocations by late May. AAFC’s spring water supply outlook should be reviewed as soon as available.
Central and northern Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba — improved but watch subsoil.
Conditions across most of central and northern Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba improved substantially through winter 2025–26. For producers in these regions, seeding conditions are closer to normal than they have been in several years. The risk is not in opening conditions but in whether May–July precipitation stays on pace. ENSO-neutral provides no strong seasonal precipitation signal in either direction — which means the 2026 growing season will be determined primarily by synoptic weather patterns rather than a large-scale climate driver. The absence of a La Niña drought tilt is good news; the absence of an El Niño moisture signal for the summer months means there is no positive precipitation bias to lean on either.
Livestock and forage — southern Alberta remains tight.
With 21% of Prairie agricultural land still in D0–D2 at the end of March, pasture greening and early forage availability in southern Alberta are constrained. Producers managing cow-calf operations in D1 and D2 zones should not assume that improved CDM classifications since December automatically translate to adequate early pasture access. Subsoil conditions at depth recover more slowly than surface classifications suggest. Early pasture turnout in zones that still carry subsoil deficits risks overgrazing perennial stands before root systems are fully charged. Forage inventory management through May is the operative planning decision.
ENSO transition — multi-season planning signal.
The La Niña exit is a positive multi-season signal for Prairie agriculture. For producers making acreage allocation decisions, input pre-buy commitments, or livestock expansion calls for 2027, the El Niño development probability is a material variable: it removes the risk of a compounding third consecutive La Niña drought year for 2026–27. That said, El Niño is not confirmed — the 80% ENSO-neutral probability for April–June 2026 means there is a meaningful chance conditions remain near-neutral longer than the models currently project. No multi-season planning decision should treat El Niño as a certainty at this stage.
Cross-Reference to Related WFR Coverage
What to Watch
Canadian Drought Monitor — April 2026 Assessment. AAFC publishes the CDM monthly, typically by the 10th of the following month. The April 30 assessment will be the critical pre-seeding baseline for 2026. Watch for any expansion or contraction of D1 and D2 in southern Alberta, and for whether improvements in central and northern regions hold through April. Source: agriculture.canada.ca/en/agricultural-production/weather/canadian-drought-monitor
NOAA CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion — May 14, 2026. The next scheduled ENSO advisory will confirm whether El Niño conditions are emerging or whether ENSO-neutral is holding. A May advisory that increases the El Niño emergence probability above 70% for the May–July window would be a material update warranting immediate coverage. Source: cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory
AAFC Weekly Crop and Weather Report — in-season reporting now active. AAFC’s weekly crop and weather report resumes its full in-season publication cycle through April–November. This is the primary near-term condition source for the 2026 growing season. Source: agriculture.canada.ca/en/agricultural-production/weather
Alberta Agriculture Spring Soil Moisture Report. Alberta Agriculture and Forestry typically publishes a spring soil moisture assessment in April that provides province-wide subsoil moisture ratings by region. This report will be the definitive Tier 1 benchmark for Alberta seeding conditions and should trigger an update post when released.
Tags: La Niña, El Niño, ENSO, Canadian Drought Monitor, soil moisture, southern Alberta drought, Prairie seeding, canola, spring precipitation outlook, Pacific Decadal Oscillation
This post was produced with AI assistance. All sources are attributed and linked. Western Farm Report editorial standards apply.